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Opinion
July 13, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 25
Georgia-Russia: Bird’s Eye View
Recent statistics showed that in January 2018, Russia became the biggest export partner of Georgia ($28.665mn), and in terms of the overall trade balance Russia is currently second ($94mn) after only Turkey ($112mn) and slightly ahead of Azerbaijan with $91mn.
This is an interesting development: while tensions between the countries are high and the 10th anniversary of the Russo-Georgian military conflict is imminent, Moscow and Tbilisi in fact continue to enjoy a pretty intensive economic relationship.
Although the majority in Georgia regard Russia negatively, its geographic proximity to Georgia forces the country into economic relations. Geor- gia’s location allows Tbilisi to be a regional transit hub, and it can’t afford to be oriented towards only one country; if it were then Russia is the obvious candidate to play this role. However, this also does not preclude Georgia and Russia from talking to each other and fostering economic relations. The non-existence of diplomatic relations as well as fundamental differences regarding Abkhazia and Samachablo does not stop the Georgian govern- ment from creating closer economic contacts
with Russian businesses.
It could be argued that Georgia is pursuing a clever strategy of not positioning itself as an anti-Russian state, but also not abandoning its pro-western course. The ideal scenario for Tbilisi would be when all the neighbouring countries have a stake in the security of Georgia. In addition, large players, such as China with its Belt and Road Initiative, the EU, the US and others would also be involved in the economics of the country. This might create a certain balance in the region.
The countries might be enemies, but geopolitics can at times mean these countries still have to
maintain relations. In an era of an increasing interconnectedness, neighbouring rival countries cannot ignore economic cooperation. Economic interconnectedness through supply chains eventually breaks down large geographic and man-made barriers like those, for instance, created between Samachablo and the rest of Georgia. Russian-Georgian economic cooperation proves that economic progress tramples geopolitics.
What is the future of Georgian-Russian relations? How far could cooperation go? Is Georgia simply being forced by the realities of the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus to become more open to Russia, or it is a continuation of the policy the cur- rent Georgian government has pursued through- out the past several years: pro-Western foreign policy and maintaining contacts with Russia? It
is too large a question to answer, but it neverthe- less shows that Tbilisi and Moscow have much to talk about. Both could cooperate in the security realms as well as deepening economic ties.
At the same time, this potential limited coop- eration doesn't guarantee a rosy picture for the future of Russia-Georgia relations. Moscow is very unlikely to give up on its policy towards Sa- machablo and Abkhazia, while Tbilisi will remain on principle pushing for a return of its territorial integrity. Moreover, Russia has issues with Georgia’s pro-western course, as it endangers Russia’s geopolitical goals in the Caucasus.
These fundamental problems will cap any the improvements in relations, but the two states could work on other points in order to reduce tensions. This brings us back to the Georgian PM’s statement on reaching a breakthrough in relations with Russia. Indeed, a “breakthrough” here does not signify anything dramatic. It emphasises the fact that there exists the need for engaged Georgia-Russia talks.