Page 29 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2025

bne April 2025 Cover story I 29
(IMF). Unlike the EU, none of these organisations have much in the way of a values agenda, but many of them do promote mutual security.
This is an increasingly mobile society that is actively building up non-Western partnerships. Putin and Xi enjoy a
“no limits” friendship and have met personally a total of 42 times. In 2024 alone they met three times, including at the BRICS summit in Kazan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Moscow last July to do energy and arms deals with Russia. The Ukrainian ceasefire talks are being held in KSA, as there is
a Middle East peace deal component to the negotiations. And Saudi’s MbS and Putin have met in person half a dozen times, and talk regularly by phone.
Coalition of the willing
Against the frenetic diplomatic activity of the emerging markets, the unity of the Western world has been shattered by Trump. He has picked much publi- cised fights with allies such as Canada and Mexico, but the decades-old special trans-Atlantic relationship has gone sour too.
same time UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is putting together a “coalition of the willing” to provide Ukraine with military support.
On March 15, 2025, in an interview with Parisien, French President Emmanuel Macron said that European countries could send up to 30,000 peacekeepers and instructors to Ukraine without Russia's consent to defend the country post-ceasefire.
On 17 March, Starmer's spokesman
said that more than 30 countries
could join the coalition to monitor compliance with any deal on Ukraine and ensure peace. The politician said that representatives of the countries would meet on March 20 to discuss
the "operational phase" of protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force.
But the whole project remains vague and while 18 countries have voiced their readiness to cooperate, there is still no definite list of members nor any concrete plan of action. Moreover, while the EU has been a key Ukrainian partner for all of the last three years,
shuttle diplomacy, because there is no negotiation table [which could be used by EU representatives]."
The rationale for countries like Hungary for refusing to cooperate is that it will cost a lot of money they would rather spend at home. The EU would be
“economically ruined” if it decides to fast-track Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in the wake of an EU summit on March 20.
“Sooner or later, everyone will understand that Ukraine's accession
to the European Union at this stage would mean its economic collapse," he said on a morning programme of the Kossuth radio station. The situation
is further complicated by impending interest payments on outstanding loans received to stimulate the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Repayment of a massive loan taken out earlier is on the horizon. In 2027- 28, interest and principal will be paid. Calculations show that this will use up 20% of the EU budget – HUF20 forints out of every HUF100 forints," Orban said, adding that taking out new loans is "a bad idea."
So far the countries that have put
their hand up to say they are willing to join the coalition include: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Czechia, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Those EU countries not participating are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The new map of the West vs Emerging Market allies now looks starkly different from that at the start of the year, when the unipolar world dominated by the US was still in effect. Now the “West” has been reduced to two thirds of the EU and without the US, whereas just the BRICS club has dramatically expanded in the last year alone.
“The new map of the West vs Emerging Market allies now looks starkly different from that at the start of the year, when the unipolar world dominated by the US was still in effect.”
That has come as a shock for Brus-
sels. Since the end of WWII Europe
has relied on the US security umbrella and its “most favoured nation” trading status. But the umbrella has abruptly snapped shut and Trump is threaten- ing to impose a 25% import tariff on all European goods. Europe has suddenly found itself alone with a well-armed and angry Russian bear loose in its Ukrai- nian backyard.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has launched the ReArm programme to raise hundreds of billions of euros to re-equip Europe’s military. At the
nine EU countries – not just the publicly pro-Russia Hungary and Slovakia – have said they will not participate in the coalition.
The EU has been entirely excluded from the Ukraine ceasefire talks that kicked off in Riyadh on February 18 and can’t find a way in, said chief of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas on March 17.
"We are discussing this matter with different interlocutors," she said, when asked about potential participation
of the Union in negotiations between Russia and the US on a peace deal
in Ukraine. "It is right now a really
www.intellinews.com