Page 53 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2025

bne April 2025
Opinion 53
Dodik appears to have been doing all he can to make a good impression on Trump. He donned a red MAGA cap to cele- brate the returning Republican candidate's election victory at a cocktail reception in Banja Luka. A few weeks into Trump’s presidency, the Bosnian Serb politician penned a glowing tribute on X titled “Donald Trump – A Leader Who Brings Peace and Stability to the World”.
However, if Dodik had counted on US backing for Repub- lika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and eventual union
with Serbia, he has been left disappointed; nor has he been successful in persuading the US to lift its sanctions on him. In fact, while Dodik was hosting a party in honour of Trump’s election victory, the US Department of Treasury imposed a fresh package of sanctions against his associates.
Overall, Washington’s response to Dodik’s actions has been critical rather than supportive, with Rubio calling out Dodik for “dangerous and destabilising behaviour”, and showing no sign of backing his push for secession.
“The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina's institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encour- ages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilising behaviour,” Rubio wrote on X as the situation worsened in Bosnia.
The US embassy reinforced this stance, condemning Repub- lika Srpska’s adoption of “anti-constitutional and anti-Dayton laws”. "Let us be clear – this is a deliberate provocation to Bosnia and Herzegovina's constitutional order and poses
a direct threat to its stability and security, as well as to US strategic objectives,” the embassy said.
"War party" vs "peace party"
Like Dodik, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has sought to cultivate closer ties with the Trump adminis- tration. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze expressed his support for Trump, wishing him “endurance and courage” after the February 28 White House confrontation between Trump, Vice President J D Vance and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Kobakhidze framed the dispute as a contest between what he dubbed the “war party”, represented by Zelenskiy and his supporters, and the “peace party”, led by Trump.
The Georgian prime minister has also sought to frame the ongoing standoff between his government and anti-govern- ment protesters as a battle between pro-Trump forces and
a “collective” opposed to the Trump administration’s peace initiatives in Ukraine. His opponents want a re-run of the October 2024 general election that is widely considered to have been rigged in Georgian Dream’s favour, and for the government to resume EU accession negotiations.
The Georgian government is increasingly in conflict with the EU, and has demonstrated its ideological closeness with Trump’s America, for example by adopting changes to the Law on Gender Equality that eliminated the legal definition of “gender”, shortly after the US’ executive order 14168 titled "Defending Women from Gender Ideology”. Gender issues are a popular theme for right-wingers across Emerging Europe as well as in the US.
Despite these overtures, however, there has been little indica- tion of reciprocation from Washington. Rather than Kobakh- idze or Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, it was former president Salome Zourabichvili – a vocal critic of the ruling party and a supporter of the anti-government protests – who received an invitation to Trump’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, the US Senate is preparing to consider the MEGOBARI Act, a bipartisan bill that proposes sanctions against Georgian Dream officials for alleged human rights violations and democratic backsliding. The act mandates US government agencies to report to Congress on Russian intel- ligence operations and sanctions evasion in Georgia.
Uneven treatment
One theory for the uneven treatment of Emerging European leaders by the Trump administration is that while Trump seeks to secure a foreign policy victory by ending the Ukraine war, the burning international issue of the last three years, conflicts in smaller countries such as Bosnia and Georgia are simply not high on his agenda.
Another persistent hypothesis – backed up by his abrupt withdrawal of support for Ukraine and attack on Zelenskiy
in the White House – is that Trump’s policies align with Russian interests, reviving long-standing speculation about his possible connections to Moscow. Trump’s radical shift in US foreign policy – which not only abandons Ukraine but also exposes other European nations to potential Russian aggres- sion – has only fuelled such speculation.
A third explanation is that Trump is pursuing tangible commercial benefits. His administration’s brief push for
a rare earths deal with Ukraine suggests a transactional approach to foreign policy. In contrast, neither Bosnia nor Georgia possesses significant natural resources, nor do they match Hungary or Romania in terms of economic strength within the Emerging Europe region.
Backing Dodik would create the risk of another Balkan war, a messy and potentially very bloody scenario that would benefit no one. In business terms, that would complicate interests linked to Trump’s inner circle. His son-in-law Jared Kushner, through his investment firm Affinity Partners, has been exploring major real estate ventures in both Serbia and Albania – a development that would be jeopardised by renewed regional instability. What Trump's fans in Bosnia or Georgia have to offer is simply not enough to tempt the US president to back them.
www.intellinews.com