Page 7 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2025

bne April 2025 Companies & Markets I 7
Kobakhidze said that the two “reaffirmed our commitment to deepening cooperation and exploring new opportunities to further strengthen our partnership across both economic and political spheres”.
The Georgian PM and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimu- hamedow also spoke of the importance of connectivity between the two nations as well as the development of the Middle Corridor.
“Deepening close ties with Turkmenistan in pursuit of developing a safe and secure Middle Corridor is high on our agenda. I believe our partnership has the potential to ensure greater peace and economic development for the region and beyond,” Kobakhidze wrote on X following the meeting.
INTERVIEW
During a meeting with Rashid Meredov, deputy chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan, the Georgian First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Levan Davitashvili noted that, while Georgia and Turkmenistan are “stable trading partners”, “the turnover of goods between our countries is not as large as we would like” and highlighted “much greater potential for our cooperation”.
In early February during a meeting with the Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov in Astana, Kobakhidze highlighted the key role of Georgia-Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan cooperation in helping to boost the development of the Middle Corridor.
The project promises to bring significant financial and industrial benefits to Georgia.
Industrialisation is key to Kazakhstan’s development, says EDB chief economist
Clare Nuttall in Almaty
Kazakhstan is working to reduce its dependence on natural resources and embrace industrial diversi- fication, while investing into infrastructure in the transport and energy sectors, said Evgeny Vinokurov, chief economist at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), in an interview with bne IntelliNews.
According to Vinokurov, rapid and sustainable growth is the key objective. "Kazakhstan – as well as other Central Asian economies – wants to grow not only sustainably but also outright rapidly. Rapid growth is needed to achieve higher living standards and to get a better place in the international division of labour. Industrialisation is key here," he said.
The EDB has a relatively optimistic projection for Kazakh- stan’s economic growth this year, forecasting that it will expand by 5.5% in 2025, up from 4.8% in 2024.
Vinokurov pointed to changes in growth drivers, with the impetus for growth shifting from exports towards internal sources. “In 2025, key drivers of Kazakhstan’s economic growth will include government initiatives to develop vital infrastructure, implement socially significant projects and stimulate regional growth,” he said.
“Our forecast indicates the potential for economic growth, driven by the start of a new investment cycle. This new phase is set to expand the non-resource sector, with manufacturing leading the way.”
As pointed out by the EDB, by the end of 2024, 180 investment projects with a total value of KZT1.3 trillion ($2.6bn) had been carried out in the manufacturing sector, pushing growth in the sector close to 6%, to its highest rate in a decade.
Robust exports
This is not to discount hydrocarbons. In 2025, oil output and exports are projected to increase with the introduction of new capacity at the Tengiz field, contributing an estimated 0.4-0.6 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth. Additionally, a reduc- tion in the base interest rate is expected to further stimulate economic expansion.
Kazakhstan's total foreign trade turnover is estimated to be around $140bn in 2024. While the country’s exports are still largely resource-based, the share of fuel and energy goods in trade has declined from 76.4% in 2014 to 57% in 2024. This shift, driven by rising exports of chemical products, metals, and metal-related goods, reflects a gradual move away
from oil dependence and highlights the ongoing need for economic diversification.
On the import side, Russia and China remain Kazakhstan’s top trade partners, accounting for 30% and 26% of imports respectively. In addition, imports from other countries have seen some growth, including France (3.3%), South Korea (3.1%), Turkey (2.9%) and Vietnam (1.15%).
However, Vinokurov cautioned against depending on exter- nal demand, warning that between 2025 and 2027, global
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