Page 7 - bne_Magazine_April_2018

bne April 2018 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
Russia's GDP growth in January stood at 2% y/y, after 1.4% y/y growth seen in December, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated on March 15. The acceleration in economic growth was driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector that gained 4.7% y/y in January versus a 2% y/y decline in the previous month.
Russia's current account surplus reached $20.8bn in January-February 2018, according to data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), making a $8bn surplus in February alone after the $12.8bn seen in January.
Russian food exports reached
the record-high of $19bn, grow- ing by 25% in 2017, according to Bloomberg citing the Russian Export Centre estimates. Surging exports
of wheat following the highest-ever harvest accounted for a large part
of the increase, while the booming fishing market also played a role.
Russia’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continues to outperform, rising to 56.5 in Febru- ary from 55.1 in January, IHS Markit said in a report on March 5. Because of increased output requirements, service sector firms expanded their workforces at the fastest rate since December 2012. Business confidence remained robust, with the degree of optimism the second highest since July 2011.
The European Commission has approved a new €1bn assistance programme for Ukraine to support
economic stabilisation and structural reforms. “The disbursements are condi- tional on the implementation of reform measures including the fight against corruption," the European Commission said.
Belarus' exports of goods and services totalled $5.957bn in January 2018,
up 29.9% versus the same period
in 2016, according to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB). Exports were up by 33.2%
to $3,040.9bn. Imports increased by 26.6% to $2,916.2bn. And the trade surplus was a positive $124.7mn.
Central Europe
Czech industrial production grew at constant prices by 5.5% y/y in January. However, when seasonally adjusted, production dropped slightly by 0.6% m/m.
Czech unemployment dropped to 3.7% in February from 3.9% in Janu- ary. In Czechia, approximately 280,900 persons were unemployed, which is the lowest number in February since 1997. In y/y terms, the drop is by 1.4 percent- age points.
Hungary’s industrial output increased 6.9% y/y in January, rebounding from a 0.5% y/y drop in the previous month. Based on working-day adjusted data, output was up 6.7%.
Slovak industrial production grew by 2.2% in January y/y. When seasonally adjusted, industrial output grew by 0.3% m/m in January.
The average Slovak nominal salary per month peaked a €954 in 2017. This represents an increase of 4.6%. In Q4 2017, the average salary grew y/y by 5.2% to €1,041.
Estonia's current account showed a surplus of €734mn in 2017 – a growth of 83.4% versus 2016 – representing
3.2% of GDP. In the fourth quarter, the current account was also in surplus, at €274.2mn, marking a growth of 3.3% q/q and 243.2% on the year.
Southeast Europe
Bosnia’s registered unemployment rate slightly increased to 38.7% in December, after falling to the histori- cally low level of 38.6% in November. Bosnia has one of the highest levels
of unemployment in the region as the country is still suffering from the conse- quences of the 1992-1995 war.
Eurasia
Bilateral trade between Iran and the EU expanded 52% y/y to €21bn in the first 10 months of the current Persian year (ending March 20), thanks to several large deals including automotive, oil and gas agreements. In the full
year of 2017, the EU28 member states exported goods valued at €10.8bn to Iran, up 32% y/y.
Iran’s non-oil foreign trade gap wid- ened to $6bn in the first 11 months of the Persian year (to February 19). The value of non-oil imports flowing into Iran moved up 23.61% y/y to $47.7bn, while non-oil exports grew 4.96% y/y to $41.69bn.
FDI in Georgia rose by 16.2% y/y to $1.8bn in 2017, recovering to pre- 2008-financial crisis levels. Despite a 13.6% y/y contraction in its investments to $482.1mn, Azerbaijan remains the leading foreign investor in the country.
Tajikistan’s national debt reached 51.4% of GDP as of end-2017, amounting to $770mn. The domestic debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 11.1%. Central Asia's poorest nation raised $500mn from its inaugural international bond priced at 7.125% for a 10-year term last September.
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