Page 11 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2024

bne December 2024 Companies & Markets I 11
refunded to payers, yet the broader implications for trade remain. Notably, the CBR revealed that in June, 43% of Russia's imports were settled in rubles, closely followed by the yuan
at 40%. The yuanisation of the Russian economy has led to
a liquidity shortage of yuan on the Russian market in recent months, but analysts say this is temporary.
Chinese banks treading carefully
Chinese banks have exhibited a cautious approach to mitigating the risk of sanctions, driven by their relatively limited stake in the Russian market. The Bank of China, for instance, reduced its net assets in Russia by approximately 40% since April 2024. Following the Moscow Exchange's addition to the sanctions list, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) stepped in to manage yuan clearing. However, its involvement could hinge on whether US licences allowing temporary cooperation expire on October 12. Similarly, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank
of China have reportedly scaled back their operations with Russian entities, fearing potential secondary sanctions.
This caution from Chinese institutions has resulted in heightened vetting of cross-border transactions, significantly lengthening the clearing process. Some payments have not been processed at all, and many institutions are treating yuan passing through the Russian financial system as "dirty." Smaller banks, particularly those in border regions, have attempted to fill the void left by Beijing-controlled entities but face limitations in capacity and resources.
The reluctance of larger Chinese banks to deal with Russian financial institutions has created a two-tier system where only those businesses able to afford intermediary fees or establish subsidiaries in third countries can continue trading effectively. This dynamic has further exacerbated inequalities within the Russian economy, favouring larger enterprises at the expense of smaller ones.
Trade unaffected for now
Despite these obstacles, trade volumes have yet to show a significant contraction. The CBR data from the first eight months of 2024 show an 8% reduction in imports, while customs data reveal that imports from the largest suppliers to Russia have changed only marginally. However, this resilience has relied on increasingly creative solutions. One key method has been using third countries for registering subsidiaries, as well as intermediaries to facilitate payments, allowing businesses to circumvent direct exposure to Russian sanctions. Russia has also turned to platforms that connect importers with exporters holding "clean" yuan in China and, in more extreme cases, cash, cryptocurrencies and even barter arrangements have come into play.
For China, there have been benefits amidst these complica- tions. As smaller Russian importers struggle to navigate the web of sanctions, larger Chinese businesses, such as Sinopec and Huawei, are well-positioned to capture a more significant market share. This has implications not only for the structure of
Russia's import ecosystem but also for prices, as reduced compe- tition could push up the costs of imported goods, says OSW. Furthermore, Chinese exporters have found new opportunities to leverage their financial connections in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to provide alternative channels for payments, thus reinforcing their influence in the region. In doing so, China has positioned itself as an indispensable partner for Russia, capable of bridging the gaps left by Western financial institutions.
The repercussions of these sanctions have also rippled through the logistical aspects of trade. Shipping costs for imports have increased, partly due to the reduced number of viable routes that avoid jurisdictions imposing sanctions. Delays
at ports and border crossings have become more frequent as heightened scrutiny leads to longer inspection times. These logistical hurdles, coupled with increased payment processing times, have strained the supply chain for critical goods, from industrial machinery to consumer electronics.
Russian businesses have shown a remarkable ability to adapt by stockpiling inventories and adjusting their procurement strategies to mitigate these disruptions. For traders currently it’s a case of “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”
While sanctions are undeniably straining Russia's economy, particularly its SMEs, analysts suggest that what is developing are new robust financial payment mechanisms outside the reach of sanctions for both Russia and China. Though payment issues have escalated since late July, and trade data for this period is not out yet, it seems that neither country is willing to let sanctions define the limits of their commerce. The evolving methods
– from formal banking to barter – suggest a determination
to maintain economic connectivity, even as global financial networks become increasingly fragmented. At the same time, the strangulation sanctions is driving innovation and at the recent BRICS summit in Kazakh in Russia all the members discussed setting up a BRICS Pay cryptocurrency that can be used to settle mutual trade deals independent of the dollar.
Game of whack-a-mole
The jury is still out on what the long-term consequences of these strategies and the effectiveness of the evolving financial sanctions. Sanctions on Russia remain a game of whack-a- mole and so far Russia has managed to successful evade both the oil price cap sanctions and technology sanctions that were supposed to bring the economy to its knees.
But there is a price to pay as the increased use of barter, cash and cryptocurrencies not only undermines the transparency
of international trade but also increases the risk of corruption and inefficiencies. Moreover, the shifts in trade dynamics have political implications. Smaller nations, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, are finding themselves increasingly caught between major powers, balancing the benefits of facilitating Russian trade against the potential repercussions from the West.
Furthermore, the focus on circumventing sanctions has led to the strengthening of economic ties with non-Western
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