Page 57 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2024

bne December 2024 Eurasia I 57
Pashinyan mentioned in US-Armenian relations in the “past years” took place during the Biden presidency, with the two countries' relations switching to “strategic partnership” from “strategic dialogue” earlier this year.
Trump’s election campaign did explicitly mention Armenia, as the US-based diaspora were potential voters. His promises regarding Armenia were direct and populistic, pledging to "protect persecuted Christians, work to stop violence and ethnic cleansing, and establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan".
US-Armenian community leaders did not support any candidate, unlike previous years, explaining their neutrality by the lack of clarity on the issues regarding Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the presidential candidates. The leaders of the nationalist Hay Dat committee,
however, remained hopeful that they could possibly advocate for sanctions against Azerbaijan, the release of Armenian prisoners.
In the election, Trump’s opponent Democrat Kamala Harris won 54% of the votes in California, where most Armenian-Americans live, including in Los Angeles, which has over 150,000 Armenian residents.
Trump’s promises for Armenia were seen as empty by many in Yerevan, as the Trump administration was in power during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, with no particular focus on the region and little to no action during the war that ended with a devastating defeat for Armenia.
Some see Trump’s comeback as a chance for Azerbaijan to minimise Western involvement in the Caucasus and achieve a deal with Armenia with
maximum benefits for Azerbaijan. Russia, which has been backing Azerbaijan in recent years, also has warned against a “hasty” peace deal, complaining about the US government’s increased desire to finalise the deal before Biden’s departure.
Trump's return could also complicate Armenia's regional relationships.
His potentially more constructive approach toward Moscow might ease some regional tensions, but his harder stance on Iran – one of Armenia's crucial neighbours and economic partners – could create new challenges. Trump's strong pro-Israel position and potential alignment with Azerbaijan
in anti-Iranian initiatives might further complicate regional dynamics for Armenia. In the meantime, any potential Russia-US rapprochement would further complicate Armenia’s foreign policy shift towards the West and the European Union.
Protesters attack parliament building in Abkhazia Ailis Halligan in Tbilisi
Resistance to the disputed Russian- Abkhaz investment agreement
is gaining momentum in the Abkhaz capital. A violent protest took place on November 15 outside the parliament building in Sokhumi, inside which discussions on the ratification
of the agreement were taking place.
Fearing Russian encroachment in the region, a significant proportion of the public strongly oppose the investment deal, which grants unprecedented concessions to Russian investors
in Abkhazia, and has been dubbed “privileges for oligarchs”.
Swarms of angry protestors breached the parliament gates, besieging the building, and threw eggs and plastic bottles at the police and military, who were mobilised in anticipation of civil unrest during the parliamentary meeting on November 15.
The Abkhaz political opposition have expressed concern that the agreement, should parliament sign off on it,
would be detrimental to the republic’s interests. Specifically, they warn of
a fatal blow to local businesses and a security threat to Abkhaz society.
Over recent days opposition figures have been urging local parliamentary deputies to block the deal, which has already been signed by the Abkhaz Minister
of Economy but requires ratification by the parliament. These talks have proved effective; by the morning of the 14 November 12 out of 35 deputies had officially stated that they would oppose ratification of the agreement.
On the evening of November 11, follow- ing one such meeting, five opposition members were arrested and detained, fuelling widespread protests. Through- out the day on November 12 hundreds
of demonstrators blockaded Abkhazia’s Kodori and Gumista bridges in an act of protest, resulting in the opposition members’ release the following day.
Opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba called on the authorities to "postpone the discussion of this divisive issue until after the presidential election, which is due in several months”. He also appealed to the security forces to “exercise wisdom and restraint”.
“Do not allow yourselves to be used as tools by a government that seeks personal enrichment at the expense of the people. Remember, your oath is to our homeland, not to President [Aslan] Bzhania and his oligarchs," Ardzinba said.
If the opposition succeeds in blocking the ratification, the pro-Russian Abkhaz president, Bzhania, has a very slim chance of re-election in the February 2025 vote.
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