Page 17 - bneMagazine March 2023 oil discount

bne March 2023 Companies & Markets I 17
For what they're worth, the figures on the consequences of last week’s disaster come via comparisons with the August 17 quake. So they take us to the conclusion that the catastrophe will hit Turkey’s economy to the tune of $84bn, with $74mn of that attributed to building losses and $10bn of GDP losses.
Turkey reported GDP of around $800bn for 2021. It is expected to report a figure of around $800-850bn for 2023. Thus, based on the Turkonfed figures, the earthquakes will erase somewhere between 1% to 2% from GDP.
Another conclusion of Turkonfed is that the exports of the 10 provinces hit by the earthquakes will fall to below $15bn due to the wrecked Iskenderun port, which was on fire for several days after the disaster struck.
Transport
• Hatay Airport
• Hatay – Reyhanli road
• Gaziantep road
• Hatay road
• Gaziantep – Osmaniye road
• Adiyaman – Celikhan road
• Many roads to towns and villages
Electricity
• Collapsed power distribution units.
• Grids totally destroyed in some localities.
• Main distribution facilities and lines partly repaired but
intracity lines in towns and cities remain wiped out.
Natural gas
• Pipelines exploded.
• Gas flows to Antep, Hatay and Maras were cut.
• Main lines were damaged or split. Repaired parts were split
again by aftershocks.
Oil pipeline
• Ceyhan terminal, which loads oil that flows through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline into vessels, was shut down for an audit of any possible damages. No damage was observed.
Communication
• Communication services in the region, which hosts a total of 12mn mobile subscribers, were not totally shut down but very serious disruptions were experienced.
• A total of 2,451 base stations collapsed.
• Very serious disruptions continue.
Hospitals
• Iskenderun State Hospital, which received a negative report on its earthquake resistance in 2012, collapsed.
• Hatay City Hospital collapsed along with many private hospitals.
• No exact figures have been reported on the number of collapsed hospitals.
Schools
• No official information has been released on the number of collapsed schools.
The region exported $22bn of goods in 2022. A loss of around $7bn is consequently expected, representing a 3% share of Turkey’s overall exports of $254bn in 2022.
Export revenues of the provinces hit by earthquakes, 2022
USD thousand
%
Turkey
Earthquake region
Gaziantep
Hatay
254,171,899
21,570,652
11,196,596
4,067,430
100%
8.49%
4.41%
1.60%
1.23%
0.56%
0.18%
0.17%
0.14%
0.12%
0.05%
0.04%
Adana 3,116,961
Kahramanmaraş 1,411,709
Malatya 456,234
Diyarbakır 422,054
Elazığ 366,888
Şanlıurfa
Kilis
Adıyaman
313,082
122,433
97,263
Turkonfed expects Turkey’s budget deficit will rise to 5.4% of GDP. The government has been targeting a 2023 deficit of Turkish lira (TRY) 660bn, equal to around 3.4% of the TRY 18 trillion GDP target.
With Bloomberg HT suggesting that earthquake expenditures will equal 5.5% of GDP, Turkonfed, as a result, expects a 5.4% budget deficit.
Perhaps more meaningful are the earthquake-damaged infrastructure items listed by Turkonfed:
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