Page 76 - bneMagazine March 2023 oil discount

76 Opinion
bne March 2023
Zelenskiy has been asking for tanks and planes since the first weeks of the war. Shortly after Russia’s invasion a year ago Zelenskiy raged against Nato in a video address at its refusal to close the skies to Russian planes. “All the people who will die starting from this day will die because of you. Because of your weakness. Because of your disunity,” Zelenskiy said in a video address to the Alliance. In another video made in the third week of the war, he demanded the West supply him with “1% of its 20,000 tanks” as well as planes. “We didn’t ask for this war... We just want to survive.”
He gave a much more polished address in Brussels this week as Ukraine has received an enormous amount of military aid since then, but his basic demands, that he has been making since the start of the war a full year ago, have not been met. The west has refused all requests for offensive weapons
that could change the tide of the war, while sending huge quantities of defence weapons.
Not a single tank has actually arrived – one Leopard has arrived from Canada and is sitting in Poland – and half of the total of 421 that have been promised could take up to a year to be delivered. According to reports a total of 28 Leopards are supposed to arrive by the end of February and another 28 will probably arrive in March. Those will be more than welcome, but they cannot change the tide of the war by themselves, according to a recent note by economist Adam Tooze. At least a whole brigade would be needed to make a significant impact, about 400 tanks.
Nevertheless, the promise of tanks was a breakthrough and is another token of a slow escalation. Zelenskiy immediately followed up with demands for jets, but those have largely fallen on deaf ears.
Poland is amongst the few countries willing to supply the US-made F-16 fighters and was instrumental in forcing the tank deal through by threatening to send its own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unilaterally, ignoring its obligation to seek German permission. However, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recently told reporters that the transfer of any aircraft to Ukraine could happen “only in agreement with Nato countries” and Poland "will act in full coordination" with its allies.
Since then, US President Joe Biden said the US won’t send F-16 jets to Ukraine, even though the US is ramping up military assistance in the form of artillery and tanks.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell likewise said in recent days sending fighter jets to Ukraine not on EU’s agenda and dismissed the idea as a “highly controversial” issue, according to El Pais.
French President Emmanuel Macron earlier said he did not rule out sending fighter jets to Ukraine but followed up on February 9 by saying it is not on the agenda for the moment.
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Ukraine has gone as far as formally applying to the Netherlands for fighter jets, according to Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren. "And we have to look seriously
at the consequences, it can't just happen overnight. We have to be honest about that," Ollongren told the local media
in response.
Even the UK government, Ukraine’s staunchest military ally in Europe, has ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine for now, although it has started training Ukrainian pilots on Nato jets. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC on February 9 that there won’t be an immediate transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine but did not exclude the possibility of supplying them.
Windows of opportunity
Zelenskiy must be very frustrated and increasingly worried about what the rest of the year holds. Even the analysts in Washington worry that “time might be on Russia’s side,” according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which has added to the impetus to provide Ukraine with tanks.
Confidence that EU unity and the crushing pressure of sanctions would force the Kremlin to seek an off ramp have faded as it becomes increasingly clear that they have failed
to put any significant pressure on the Russian economy. Indeed, the current downturn has been less painful than
the drop caused by the coronavirus pandemic, as far as the main macroeconomic indicators show. The Kremlin will not be forced to the negotiating table by economic problems
and the newest rounds of sanctions have less and less bite, increasingly hurting Europe more than they hurt Russia. Russia’s economy will “grow” faster this year than both the German and British economies, according to the World Bank.
It seems pretty clear that Russia is planning a surge in the spring. Russia has a window of opportunity between now and April before the first companies of Nato MBTs arrive in the fields of Ukraine. And as the tanks will be dribbled into the fight over the following year that window will be closed pretty slowly. The western tanks are not expected to reach brigade strength until 2024, long after the worst of the fighting, which will probably happen this summer, is over.
German tank Leopard 2 stands on a flat wagon. www.shutterstock.com