Page 33 - UKRRptNov23

A significant achievement was adopting a law to restore e-declaration and the adopted amendments in the Budget Code. At the same time, the IMF is waiting for the adoption of a financial monitoring law for politically significant persons and the resumption of tax audits within a few months.
Gray also expects Ukraine to restructure its Eurobond debt by August 2024. The IMF expects a positive decision on revising the EFF program in the first half of December.
The World Bank has improved its economic forecast for Ukraine. The World Bank forecasts Ukraine's GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, which is 1.5 and 0.5 percentage points higher than its June estimates, according to the updated economic forecast for developing countries of Europe and Central Asia.
The bank named factors that led them to improve their prognosis: A stable electricity supply, an increase in government spending, large foreign aid, a higher-than-expected harvest, and an increase in consumer and business confidence all contributed to a gradual increase in activity in the first half of this year after a sharp decline a year ago.
The growth forecast for Ukraine's economy in 2026 is projected at 6.5%. In general, the bank states that the economic conditions in Ukraine remain challenging due to escalating security risks, additional damage to infrastructure, renewed pressure on energy prices, and limited capacity of grain transportation routes to international markets.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
In September, the recovery in Ukraine’s production slowed down.
According to the Institute of Economic Research, the share of enterprises operating at almost full (75%-99%) and total capacity (100% and more) has been gradually decreasing for three months in a row (from 62% of respondents in June to 55% in September). At the same time, both the share of enterprises operating at full capacity and those not operating at all remain unchanged.
Generally, business uncertainty about the future is relatively high. 56% of respondents could not answer "What will happen with your company in two years?". This is understandable, given the challenges of planning production activities with a long production cycle.However, 44% of respondents were still able to predict their two-year prospects:
● plan to expand their activities by 25% ● and 5.9% want to narrow down activity
At the same time, optimism regarding production and exports decreased among some respondents:
● the share of enterprises planning production growth in the next 3-4 months fell from 47.6% to 41.7%
● the share of businesses reporting export growth also decreased -- from 26.1% to 23.9%
33 UKRAINE Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com