Page 63 - UKRRptNov23

6.2 Debt
7.0 FX
zircon concentrates in Ukraine and Europe. The balance sheet value of the UMCC assets is currently ₴4.6B.
Domestic borrowing has exceeded the plan and has already reached more than $11 billion since the beginning of the year as of October.
Ukraine FX
Sept 2022
Oct 2022
Nov 2022
Dec 2022
Jan 2023
Feb 2023
Mar 2023
Apr 2023
May 2023
Jun 2023
Jul 2023
Aug 2023
Sept 2023
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
35.26
36.90
37.69
39.06
39.60
39.60
39.39
40.48
40.48
40.14
40.14
40.26
39.38
Currency (units per USD) (average)
36.71
36.21
36.85
36.86
36.76
36.76
36.81
36.85
36.83
36.90
36.90
36.92
36.92
source: NBU
The flow of foreign currency to Ukraine is decreasing, increasing risk for the hryvnia. Over the past few months, currency inflows to Ukraine have significantly decreased, which is explained by two factors: the deficit of foreign trade and the reduction of financial aid from partner countries. According to Forbes, trade is one of the two key factors that increase the balance of payments deficit. The trade balance remains $2.9B in the negative. The negative balance of payments in July-August was $2.8B, but a year earlier, it was positive with a surplus of $3.5B. In August, the situation was aggravated by the delay of a $1.25B grant from the US. Also, Ukraine's international reserves have fallen by $2B in two months. Uncertainty about next year's international aid adds to the problem. Revenue from partners has decreased significantly: from $3.25-$4.45B in May-July to $1.65-$2.9B in August-October. Most of these funds came in the first months of the year. The publication notes that this increases the pressure on the hryvnia, which recently returned to a floating rate against the dollar.
Financial experts, including bankers, analysts, business leaders, and private individuals, have revised their expectations for the hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate in the coming year.
According to reports from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), there is a growing consensus that the exchange rate may hover around UAH40 to the dollar or potentially higher over the next twelve months. (chart)
As of October 2023, financial professionals anticipate the exchange rate to be
63 UKRAINE Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com