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and fertilizer prices, which threatens to reduce sown acreage in the coming years.
According to KSE, the financial gap in Ukraine’s agricultural sector is $20B. The Ukraine agricultural industry is deteriorating, and there is no reason to expect improvement. Among the reasons is the lack of coordination of donor aid.
Ukraine will send 75% of its grain harvest to foreign markets. This year's harvest of grain and oil crops in Ukraine will be at 79 million tons, 10% more than last year. Three-quarters should be sent for export, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a government meeting. He said 25% of the harvested grain is enough for the country's internal needs. Everything else should be exported to provide resources for farmers, foreign exchange for the state, and food for starving countries. The head of government emphasized the importance of the Western grain export route and noted that Ukraine is counting on the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism for verification and control of Ukrainian agricultural exports, the EU solidarity transit routes, the expansion of the Danube ports' capabilities, and on new grain corridors. According to preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2023 farmers will harvest 21.7 million tons of wheat, 5.7 million tons of barley, and 28.5 million tons of corn.
Domestic consumption is about 18mn tonnes, so production will be three times higher than domestic consumption. UGA said the harvest could include 26.9mn tonnes of corn, 20.2mn tonnes of wheat, 5.2mn tonnes of barley, 13.9mn tonnes of sunflower seeds, 3.9mn tonnes of rapeseed and 4.8mn tonnes of soybeans.
In the 2022/23 season, most of the volume was exported via deep Black Sea ports under the deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July to tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Ukrainian ports.
Ukrainian agricultural holding will receive $480M in loans for debt refinancing and other needs. The IFC, EBRD, and DFC will provide Ukrainian agricultural holding MHP with $480M for debt refinancing and maintenance of current activities. As reported by the IFC, it will provide $30M for the modernization and development of a complex for processing organic waste into electricity and a $100M loan to increase financial stability and refinance Eurobonds. The EBRD loan for $100M is provided to ensure MHP’s financial stability. The loan will help the company refinance its Eurobonds, as it has limited access to capital markets. Under the terms of cooperation with the EBRD, MHP undertook to strengthen its climate corporate governance. DFC will provide MHP with a $250M loan to support the Ukrainian chicken and grain producers and mitigate the consequences of the Russian invasion. These funds will be used for debt refinancing and to support meat and grain production.
Better wheat production prospects boosted the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization’s latest forecast for global cereal production to 2.819bn tonnes. Wheat production was revised upward by 3.7mn tonnes in September to 785mn tonnes. The increase was almost entirely based on more positive yield results from Russia and Ukraine compared to earlier expectations, the FAO said. This offsets a steep cut to Canada’s wheat output
83 UKRAINE Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com