Page 7 - RusRPTFeb19

ended," according to "Global Economic Prospects. Darkening Skies," the January 2019 World Economic Outlook by the World Bank.
Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record high of 11.16mn barrels per day (bpd) last year on an annual average basis, data from its energy ministry showed on January 2.
The World Bank also predicted that oil prices would average $67 in 2019,
which is an increase from the $54 average in December, but less than the $75- plus oil prices average for most of the third and fourth quarter of last year. Even at $67 the oil price won’t hurt Russia’s economy badly as the budget currently breaks even at $50, according to BCS Global Markets. Indeed, a slightly lower oil price will help hold inflation down closer to the CBR’s target of 4%.
In 2020 and 2021, the World Bank expects an increase in the growth rate of Russia's GDP to 1.8%. The official forecast is for an even lower 1.5%, although in January the Ministry of Economy increased its forecast to 2% for 2019. In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2019 by 0.3%, to 1.8%. The IMF maintained its forecast for GDP growth in 2018 at 1.7%. At the same time, the IMF expects inflation in Russia in 2018 at the level of 2.8% due to moderately tight monetary policy.
“There are growing signs that slack in the economy is being used up, and this seems to be happening a bit more quickly than we had previously anticipated. Early last October, we estimated that the so-called ‘output gap’ in Russia’s economy was about 1% of potential GDP, suggesting strengthening demand could result in above-potential GDP growth,” Capital Economics said in a note.
Amongst the many targets Russian president Vladimir Putin set in the decrees is for Russia’s economic growth to outpace global growth. That task has been made easier after the World Bank predicted that global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2019 in its January economic outlook.
7 RUSSIA Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com