Page 30 - Russia OUTLOOK 2022

of wages in the economy, which will add to the strong inflationary pressures. Higher employment rates and wages in the leading industries will boost competition in the labour market and the growth of wages in other sectors as well. Wages may even rise faster than labour productivity, say economists.
In 53 Russian constituent entities, employment indicators have surpassed pre-pandemic levels by December, but the number of people registered in job centres does not reach 820,000. Rosstat figures show that unemployment is at an all-time low in many regions.
• Retail
Russian retail turnover is expected to increase by 8% year on year to $510bn (about RUB38 trillion) in 2021, catching up with the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels of 2019 and closing the 6% contraction to $479bn seen in 2020.
But due to the high base of recovering demand in 2021 and diminishing stimulus from fiscal policy, analysts expect that domestic consumption will soften in 2022. According to estimates, retail trade may deteriorate to 3.3% in 2022 vs 8% projected in 2021.
Estimates of Deloitte are in line with the forecast of domestic Infoline-Analytics that also expects retail turnover to top RUB39 trillion in 2021 (15% growth in Infoline estimates), with the non-food and food segments accounting for
30 RUSSIA Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com