Page 51 - Russia OUTLOOK 2022

· Cost of risk is anticipated to be in the range of 0.8-0.9% for FY22-23.
· Net fees and commission income are expected to grow 11-13% in 2022.
· Around 10% of SBER’s FY22 opex should be generated by non-financial companies (vs. 6.6% for 9M21).
· SBER’s CET1 CAR for YE22 is expected to be above 13%.
· RWA density is expected to be 93% in 2022 (vs. 88% for 9M21).
Dividends
· SBER does not plan to change its dividend payout ratio of 50%, and there are no plans to revise the frequency of payments.
Ecosystem
· The ecosystem is seen as a way to maintain and improve the profitability of SBER’s core business. The number of active SberPrime subscribers reached 4mn by the end of November (vs. 1mn in April).
· Ecosystem services are mostly expected to remain EBITDA-negative through FY23, but they should generate a lower negative EBITDA margin.
· The partnership with VK is developing “well”, and CEO Herman Gref was quite positive about the upcoming partnership with new VK CEO Vladimir Kirienko. There are some issues to resolve with the O2O JV, and both teams are discussing the JV’s future “on an everyday basis”, according to Gref. Therefore, we could see an IPO or a sale of some of the O2O businesses.
· SBER projects a revenue CAGR of more than 100% in 2022-23 for its non-financial services, including a 2x surge in its e-commerce GMV in 2022 along with a near doubling in FoodTech and Mobility revenue in 2022.
Areas for improvement
· Brokerage services, including those to institutional clients, are expected to reach RUB26bn in revenue in 2022 (vs. RUB22bn in 2021). Although SBER’s retail brokerage offering is relatively less advanced compared to some market participants, SBER now plans to catch up with them. SBER’s revamped retail brokerage app, Sber Investor 2.0, is expected to launch in mid-2022.
· After a slow start, SBER’s risk-insurance segment is gaining traction, and its revenue is expected to grow 65% in 2022.
51 RUSSIA Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com