Page 26 - 2025 Housing Forecast

Is Higher For Longer Back?
What Drives Mortgage Rates?
❑ The Fed – Guiding us down to neutral
❑ Investor Sentiment – What will the Fed do next?
❑ MBS / Treasury Markets Investors – Banks, investors, foreign governments, etc.
❑ Economic Data – Is the economy growing, contracting, or stagnating
2024 YE: 6.4% to 6.7% 2025 YE: 5.9% to 6.4%
Rate & Buyers Trends in Texas
What rate are you willing/able to get for buydowns? (percentage of respondents)
1. Mid 4.0%’s (11%)
2. High 4.0%’s (32%)
3. Low 5.0%’s (14%)
4. Mid 5.0%’s (14%)
Source: Zonda
What sense do you get about the market/consumers today? (percentage or respondents)
1. Affordability is holding consumers back (67%)
2. Consumers are still on the sidelines (42%)
3. Consumers are preparing for lower rates in 2025 (38%) 4. Consumer confidence is holding buyers back (29%)
Builder Outlook in Texas is Mixed
How is November shaping up for your local operation versus your expectations?
Texas National
Slower - Concerned
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Source: Zonda
Stronger
On Track
Slower - Not Worrisome
39%
38%
31
38%
7%
4%
Land Market in Texas Remains Unfazed
How are you thinking about your land acquisition strategy?
Texas National
Pausing On Deals
What are you seeing with land prices the last few months?
Texas National
Moving Lower
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source: Zonda
Full Steam Ahead
Cautiously Moving Forward
Bidding Lower
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
MovIng Higher
Primarily Flat
61%
79%
50%
42%
42%
46%
1%
4%
1%
13%
38%
17%
7%
What is your plan for housing starts in 2025?
Texas National
Starts Will Decrease
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Starts Will Rise
Starts Will Be Flat
73%
79%
13%
8%
13%
13%
Builders Description of the San Antonio Housing Market
Inconsistent
Knife Fight
Source: Zonda
On the Rise
Watching Rates Closely
Slow, Cautious, and Rate Sensitive
Copyright Zonda 2025
%
24%
21
%
Texas Dominates New Home Starts Nationally
48,079 13% 38,226 15%
17,001 15%
5th
San Antonio Starts Rank
5th
San Antonio YOY % Change Rank 88%
Starts are Up YOY in 22 of the Top 25 Markets
Source: Zonda
San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Bryan Glasshagel
26 2025 HOUSING FORECAST