Page 8 - Builder Brief November 2021 Issue

2021 PRESIDENT
We'll need your help
ADDRESSING CHALLENGES AS WE LOOK AHEAD
I recently attended the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Board of Director meetings. It was a great opportunity to network with Buildersfromacrossthenation. OneofthehighlightsoftheBoardmeeting was listening to Dr. Rob Dietz, NAHB’s Chief Economist, his presentation was full of valuable housing information.
Dr. Deitz shared that 2021 has been the best growth year for homebuilding since 1984 with GDP growth this year just under 6 percent. Remodeling is up 12 percent in 2021 and by all reports the home improvement sector is doingwell. Forthefirsttimeineightyears,singlefamilystartsexceeded multifamily starts in the pipeline. Multifamily starts are up this year and will see an 11 percent growth with 95 percent of all multifamily units being built for rent.
The forecast shows that our labor shortage and our supply chain issues will continue into 2022. One of the statistics that caught my attention was that more than one million American workers are sitting on the sidelines. The stimulus packages have drastically reduced our labor force and it was interesting to learn that one of the main reasons people did not come back to work last year was due to public school closings.
The supply chain issues have been felt by all of us with home prices rising by $30,000 due to lumber price increases. Lumber is not the only commoditythathasrisendrastically. Gypsumhasincreased23percent; aluminum is up 40 percent and steel prices have skyrocketed a whopping 123 percent. This equates to a 20 percent increase in overall construction costs, and it doesn’t appear that prices are going to reset any time soon.
As we look to the future, we must address the skilled labor shortage. The construction industry is short 300,000 workers today and by 2028 we will need one million new skilled trade workers. Your Executive Committee and Board of Directors will be redoubling our efforts to reach high school students in 2022 and re-engaging our NAHB Student Chapters at St. Philip’s College and the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA).
Please stay up-to-date with us on these issues because we will need to engage our elected officials on a few important ones that affect all of us and have a negative effect on housing affordability. One of the critical issues is the pending tariff increases on Canadian lumber. We need a forestry bill that will allow us to harvest lumber from our national forests. There are currently 300 trees per acre and 100 trees per acre is a ‘healthy’ inventory. We must lobby our elected officials so we can take a commonsense approach to the lumber crisis.
The growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will most likely slow down with inflation picking up. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at the end of 2022.
ED BERLANGA
The current Infrastructure bill being considered in Congress today will only make supply chain and labor issues worse as we compete for materials andworkers. Staytunedforimportantinformation on this bill in the coming weeks.
Thank you for your membership and for all you do for the homebuilding industry. Please feel free to call on me or a member of the leadership team if we can help you in any way.
Sincerely,
8 NOVEMBER 2021 | GREATER SAN ANTONIO BUILDERS ASSOCIATION