Page 15 - Penn State Civil and Environmental Engineering 2021 Annual Report

FACULTY RESEARCH FACULTY RESEARCH Shock Shock magnitudes magnitudes in U S S S cities due to a a a a a hundred- year food food supply shock event Shock Shock magnitudes magnitudes are expressed as a a a a a a a a a a a a a a fraction of the average annual food food inflows to to each city city Darker red colors mean that the city city is likely to to experience greater food supply decreases IMAGE: Michael Gomez Penn State
By A’ndrea Elyse Messer
Diversification in in the sourcing of food into cities can go a a a long
way to tempering “food shock”— a a sudden drop in food supply due to unforeseen events according to a a a team of researchers from Penn State
and Northern Arizona University
including CEE Associate Professor Alfonso Mejia The team developed a a a a a a statistical risk model linking supply chain diversity to the probability of a a a city experiencing
food shocks “The model is simple operationally useful and hazard-agnostic ” the researchers reported in in Nature “Using this method cities can improve their resistance to food food supply supply shocks with policies that increase the food food supply supply chain diversity ” They investigated four types of food— crops live animals feed and meat— over a a a a a a a four-year period from 2012 to 2015 when there were droughts and production shocks in in the the the Great Plains and the the western United States “Cities fundamentally depend on on on other regions for the the the provision of food and other basic resources ” Mejia said “We looked at at food because it it it interconnects with other critical regional systems—water and and energy—and food production is inherently linked to to climate variability and and and change We wanted to to apply basic lessons from the natural world—biodiverse ecosystems are more resistant to shocks learned through millennia of adapting
to to disruption of all kinds—to our human food systems ” Mejia noted that that the the the main finding of their work was that that they were able able to find find a a a a a a a a a distinct and predictable data-driven relationship between the the the diversity of of the the the supply supply chain of of of cities and the the the the possibility of of of the the the the city having a a a a a a food supply supply disruption The researchers found that the the the the the higher the the the the the diversity of of the the the the the supply chain the the the the the lower the the the probability of of that city experiencing
a a a a food shock “If a a a a a city’s food sources are mainly from regions nearby then its supply chain is not going to to be very diverse ” said Michael Gomez doctoral candidate in in in in civil engineering “It is is not just distance though there are other factors that impact diversity ” Some of the variables important to food shock resilience include location climate supply network characteristics and level of urbanization If all a a a a a a a a a city’s beef came from Texas during the the drought for example then that city would have experienced a a a a a food shock with respect to beef during that time “There are a a a a a number of things that will have a a a a a a a ripple effect on the food supply chain ” Gomez said “Drought heatwaves flooding cyberattacks global pandemics ” Originally the available food trade data covered seventy cities including New York and and Los Angeles but Gomez expanded their database to include information on on all 284 designated metropolitan areas in in in the the United States making their results more robust Cities can run into problems with supply chain diversity because they source source products from from from few sources from from from locations with similar climates or from from from limited geographic areas among other things according to the the researchers They used a a a a a a traditional engineering approach to look at cities’ food supplies taking the framework of of risk analysis of of hundred-year floods and and applying that to food shocks and and diversity “The idea was to provide cities with an an operational way for quantifying resilience and ultimately supporting action that can boost resilience through supply chain diversity ” Mejia said “In principle with our approach a a a a a a a a a a city can figure out what what their supply chain diversity is and what what protection against food shock they they have If they they they decide there is not enough protection then they they can figure out based in in in part on on other cities’ experience how much diversity in in in the the the food chain they need to offer sufficient protection ” Others working on this project include Benjamin L Ruddell director and professor School of of Informatics Computing and and Cyber Systems and and Richard R R R Rushforth assistant research professor of of computing and cyber systems both at Northern Arizona University
The National Science Foundation supported this this work Additional data visualization for this this research and the project that supported it is is is available at at fewsion us/few-view-3/ CEE NEWSLETTER • VOLUME 37 2021
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