Page 19 - March 2007 The Game

Canada’s Thoroughbred Racing Newspaper
The Game, March 2007 19
Handicapping 101: Playing the Jockeys
Rob McKinney named ORC Deputy Director
John Blakney, Executive Director of Ontario Racing Commission (ORC), is pleased to announce that Rob McKinney has been named ORC Deputy Director and will be responsible for Racing Operations and Investigations. He will assume his new duties effective April 1, 2007.
Terry Stone, who will be retiring effective March 31, 2007, has agreed to act as a resource to the ORC on a part-time basis until April 1, 2008, with an option to renew. He will serve as a Special Advisor to the Executive Director on racing matters and work to maintain close relationships with racetracks and horse people.
Rob McKinney was appointed Director of Investigations in February, 2004. Prior to that, he served as an Acting Unit Commander for the OPP and was seconded to the ORC for 2 1/2 years. In his new role, he will take on the additional responsibility of managing Racing Operations, and is intent on continuing to build strong working relationships with the horse racing community.
He is confident he can count on the knowledge base and professionalism of racing staff to accomplish this goal. “I believe all our staff, especially our front line representatives – stewards, judges, agents and investigators – can play a valued role in maintaining and increasing service levels,” says Rob. ” With staff’s input and participation, we will introduce the systems, standards and structure that will keep these relationships open, productive and professional.”
Rob will continue to work with the Investigations Unit, including maintaining a close relationship with the Equine Medication Control and Drug Task Force. “The health of the horse and the integrity of the industry are of the utmost importance to Ontario’s horse racing community. That’s why I believe so strongly in the work of the Task Force. Ultimately, it can play an important role in strengthening the sense of trust that will move our industry forward.”
Woodbine (2006):
Emma-Jayne Wilson Patrick Husbands Todd Kabel
Hastings (2006):
Pedro Alvarado Mario Gutierrez David Wilson
Top U.S. Jockeys (2007):
Daniel Centeno Robby Albarado Garrett Gomez Joseph Talamo
Starts 1st
970 144 666 124 571 101
498 114 439 91 536 86
223 57 179 47 166 44 213 41
2nd 3rd
136 131 108 91 79 74
73 63 73 56 78 73
51 22 30 27 27 23 34 30
Did You Know...
That there were 119 horses nominated for the 700,000 British Pound Grand National at Aintree which is scheduled to run April 14. The nominations include two previous winners, Numbersixvalverde (2006), and Hedgehunter, winner in 2005 and runner up in 2006.
Red Oak Training Centre
• Consideration given to Multiple Bookings
• Customized Programs • Trainer Les Baker -
Over 40 Years of Experience
Located One Hour from Woodbine
Call Today for More Information
905-473-6584
Training Rate $40/day Lay-Up Rate $20/day
TRAILER Sales & Service
Cimarron
* O.A.C., interest rates subject to change 465 Bloor Street West, Oshawa, ON L1J 5Y5 (1/2 hour East of Toronto - just off Hwy. 401) Call toll free: 1-866-479-1744 www.jensentrailers.com
• 3 Horse Slant with Dressing Room $163/mth+tax*
NORTH AMERICAN STAKES SERVICES
Stakes Schedules & Closing Dates for all racetracks
in North America
1-866-886-5827 www.nastakes.com
By Peter Gross
Most people who go to the track bet the horses. But on every horse, there’s a tough and sinewy little human being. Without the rider, the horse goes nowhere. If you’ve ever seen a horse throw its jock at the start of the race, you know that the runaway horse never passes the ones running with passengers. Don’t underestimate the influence of a good jockey.
Depending on which racetrack you go to, you will see the same familiar names bringing in winners every day. It’s not simply by chance that the best jockeys get the best horses; owners and trainers want a winner as much as you do and the services of the hot rider can be very much in demand. When you see Emma-Jayne Wilson or Todd Kabel on a horse, that very often indicates that the jockey and agent have poured over the Racing Form and, from the various options available to them in that particular race, have chosen the horse they feel has the best shot.
Look at the racing stats from some of the best riders on the continent. Aside from the high winning percentage, can you see what else they all have in common?
O for 41 jockeys tend to become 0 for 51, 0 for 61 etc. When you see a jockey who’s carrying a global positioning device to find the finish line, give him a pass. He gets on horses that all the leading riders passed on.
On February 17, at Aqueduct, there was a brilliant example of how to make money by not betting on Jean Luc Samyn. Samyn was on Golden Dreamer, the 1-2 favourite in the Dearly Precious Stakes. At the time he had lost his first 30 races of 2007 at Aqueduct. Certain he’d find a way to mess up an odds-on choice, I bet against him. Samyn, inexplicably, allowed Golden Dreamer to get into a gut-sapping speed duel with another horse (21.84, 44.85), the filly started walking in midstretch and I cashed on the 9-1 shot that had, wisely, sat off the pace.
You also have to scratch off horses even if you like the jockeys. Last summer, it was clear to all that Chantal Sutherland wasn’t doing well at Saratoga. A few years ago, she was ripping up Woodbine; it seemed every horse she rode etched out its highest ever Beyers number. But last summer, Chantal had 0
wins at the Spa.
A similar thing happened to Robbie King last
fall at Woodbine. King did wonderful stuff at Fort Erie, winning the riding title during the sum- mer, but at Woodbine it just wasn’t happening:
Starts 1st 2nd 3rd 118 3 9 14
Robbie King is a great guy and a talented rider, but you were wise not to risk your money on his horses. He didn’t suddenly become a stiff; it’s just that the good horses were all spoken for.
There is one remarkable trend that is well worth exploring. How many times have you seen the jockey who wins either the first or second race on a card go on to win at least one more? The numbers will surprise you. They sure opened my eyes.
I went through 114 recent cards of racing at Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Santa Anita and the Fair Grounds, making a note of how many times the first and second race-winning jockeys won again the same day. It happened 82 times. That means
that 72% of the time, just by betting the jockeys who had scored in the first two races, you would get another winning horse. That’s huge!
There’s probably several good explanations: the winner of the first race has the best chance to double up; it’s strong evidence he’s brought his ‘A’ game to the track; and, possibly most important, a win emboldens a jockey and raises his level of confidence.
Don’t ever underestimate how much the best riders communicate the belief
in victory to the horse under-
neath.
Each of the above jockeys has a 3-2-1 riding record. That is, each of them has more wins than seconds and more seconds than thirds. The best jockeys will be the difference between placing and winning. They will hit the board with the kind of horse many other riders would finish up the track with. When handicapping, I always look for a 3-2-1 kind of jock.
I also make mental notes while I watch every race; which jockey continually takes the shorter route and gets his horses along the rail more often than the others? I love Edgar Prado, who races mostly in New York and Florida. This guy knows the most efficient way to the finish line and plays the inside better than any other rider I’ve ever seen. One of my mantras is Prado on the rail - I don’t even look at the horse’s record if I see Edgar with post position one. And watch him in turf races – it’s uncanny the way he will always guide his ride to the inside.
On the flip side, there are always riders you should never bet. My favourite whipping boy is Jean-Luc Samyn. The 50 year old Frenchman’s recent num- bers at Aqueduct were:
Starts 1st 2nd 3rd 41 0 2 15
ALL ALUMINUM