Page 3 - Food Outlook

HIGHLIGHTS
Food commodity markets remain well supplied but the cost of importing food is set to rise by 6 percent from last year’s level to reach USD 1.413 trillion in 2017. Sharp increases in freight rates, stronger import demand and firmer prices of most food commodities are expected to elevate the global food import bill to its second highest level on record.
RICE
Although weather disruptions are set to stall production growth this season, global rice supplies are still forecast to exceed utilization, enabling a small expansion of world rice inventories. After staging an 8 percent recovery in 2017, global trade is expected to rise only modestly in 2018. Price gains since June have been limited by stiff export competition.
MEAT
A modest growth in global meat production is forecast for 2017, supported by expansions in bovine, pig and poultry meats and some gain in ovine meat. Trade is anticipated to grow too, albeit at a slower rate than in 2016 due to falling import demand by China.
WHEAT
Even though world wheat production in 2017 is forecast to fall below last year’s record level, wheat supplies in 2017/18 remain relatively large. Stocks are set to increase for the fifth consecutive season, reaching an all-time high. Trade is expected to contract, with international prices still mostly above last year levels.
COARSE GRAINS
With global production projected at a new record while total utilization grows at a slower pace than in the previous season, world stocks are heading for a further increase, reaching an all- time high. Trade is also expanding, underpinned by brisker purchases as buyers try to take advantage of large export availabilities and weak prices.
OILCROPS
Although global oilseed production is forecast to remain flat in 2017/18, world supplies of both meals/cakes and oils/fats are expected to expand further, aided by large carry-in stocks. In both markets, output could essentially match demand, allowing closing stocks to remain steady at comfortable levels.
FISHERIES
Global production of fish and fishery products is expected to expand in 2017, but prices have risen across all seafood commodity categories as increased supply is being more than offset by the demand stimulus resulting from an improving global economy.
CASSAVA
World cassava production could dip in 2017, on account of lower plantings in the major producing countries induced by a combination of policy changes, drought conditions and depressed root prices. Cassava trade flows are expected to remain firm, owing to poor prospects for China’s maize supply with which cassava competes.
DAIRY
World milk production in 2017 is forecast to exceed last year’s level on favourable weather conditions and more attractive prices. A moderate expansion is expected in world trade in 2017 with increases in cheese and skimmed milk powder more than offsetting declining trade in butter and whole milk powder.
GLOBAL PROSPECTS FOR MAJOR TROPICAL FRUITS
Growth in tropical fruit trade has outpaced that of most other food commodities. Innovations in distribution, trade agreement measures, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences driven by rising incomes, will continue to support further expansion ahead. However, with tropical regions particularly susceptible to extreme climate-related events, uninterrupted supplies to international markets
will be a significant challenge.