Page 126 - Climate Change and Food Systems
P. 126
chapter 4
1. Introduction 108
1.1 Background and objectives 108
1.2 Climate change projections for Europe 109
2. Climate change impact assessment methodology
for agriculture 113
2.1 Different approaches to assessment 113
2.2 Major shortcomings 116
2.3 Recent progress 118
2.4 Current use of crop simulation for assessing
effects of climate and adaptation 119
3. Selected impacts for key crops and regions 121
3.1 Production trends - past and near future projections 121
3.2 Future shifts in production possibilities (suitability) 123
3.3 Projections of relative crop yield change under
future climate scenarios 123
3.4 Projections of future crop production potential
(yields and suitability) 129
3.5 Potential implications for trade and food security 130
4. Discussion of uncertainties 132
5. Recommendations for improving impact assessment 134
References 135
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