Page 151 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 4: an overview of climate change impact on crop production and its variability in europe, related uncertainties and research challenges
distributed within Europe), compared with many other parts of the world, it would be relatively easy to take additional land into cultivation (at lower environmental cost than anywhere else) if the need should arise (see Rötter et al., 1995; Rabbinge and van Diepen, 2000; Eijckhout et al., 2007). The question remains whether the good indications
for future agricultural production potential could serve as “buffer capacity,” enabling Europe to substantially increase its contribution to global food security under CC. Good and up-to-date information on this issue is scarce, and a thorough investigation and sound discussion of this question is urgently needed. However, this goes far beyond the scope of the current review.
It is expected that the total domestic demand for cereals is likely to grow in the European Union (Msangi and Rosegrant, 2011; Bruinsma, 2012) mainly as the result of increased demand for cereals as feedstock for bioenergy production and animal use. At the same time, various projections also indicate that the increased production potential, if fully utilized, could overcompensate the growth in domestic demand. As a rough guide, the bottom line in these future scenarios for 2050 is that Europe could have a higher share in global cereal trade. Figure 10 schematically illustrates
the actual European cereal net trade and one rough projection of the future potential (2050),
by comparing the total domestic production and demand for cereals.
One important issue relevant for future food security is the likely increasing instability of agrifood systems and the short-term variability of the food supply (Lobell and Gourdji, 2012; Wheeler and
von Braun, 2013). To a large extent, this can
be attributed to a gradual increase in climate- induced adverse events and risks for agriculture (Rötter et al., 2012a). This issue has not yet been properly addressed in any biophysical or bio- economic CC impact assessments, not even in the most recent global studies (e.g. Nelson et al., 2014; and various chapters in this volume). As shown by observed weather data, global warming is already causing changes in rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme
events (Trenberth, 2011; Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012; Field et al., 2012; WMO, 2013), and climate model projections suggest that such changes
will continue in the future (Meehl et al., 2007; Rummukainen 2012, 2014).
Most critical in terms of enhanced short- term climatic variability for agriculture and global food security are those periods in which food supply shortages occur simultaneously in several important agricultural regions, as has been the case in recent years – such as 2007 and 2010 (Williams, 2012; Willenbockel et al., 2012; Lobell and Gourdij, 2012; Iizumi et al., 2013).
The ways in which conditions of food supply and demand and commodity prices change at the global level is essential information for all farmers; the crucial level for CC adaptation and mitigation is the farm, where the final decisions on agricultural production and resource management are taken (Lehtonen et al., 2010; Mandryk et al., 2012; Rötter et al., 2013b).
Realizing sustainable agriculture at both
farm and regional levels requires new integrative assessment approaches and tools that link analyses between global and local scales
(Figure 11). According to a recent review of research gaps in CC risk and agricultural impact assessment in Europe (FACCE-MACSUR6), missing elements are robust agro-ecosystem models (AEMs) and farming system models (FSMs) that can be combined with sound socio-economic data and meaningful future scenarios to model farmers’ decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies (Bezlepkina et al., 2011; Rivington et al., 2007).
In addition to improving methodologies and tools for informing adaptation, it is important
that analyses of possible effects of the most promising adaptation strategies and supportive policy responses for global trade and food security also take into account the various uncertainties that cannot be attributed to biophysical and bio- economic modelling of CC impacts, but are related to the various assumptions underlying scenarios of socio-economic development.
6 http://www.macsur.eu/
131