Page 167 - Climate Change and Food Systems
P. 167
chapter 5
Climate change impact on key crops in Africa: Using crop models and general equilibrium models to bound the predictions
Timothy Thomas and Mark Rosegrant1
main chapter messages
■ By examining the detailed climate productivity change maps, it is possible to identify climate hotspots (areas with future significant losses) and climate opportunities (areas with future gains).
■ On average, climate change across the globe will have negative effects on productivity which, together with increasing global demand, will drive prices higher. In response to the higher prices, farmers will spend more on inputs and investments to increase productivity. This second-order effect will then lead to some crops to increase in yield sufficiently well to have higher yields than without climate change.
1 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
■ Because there is reasonable uncertainty as to the impact of climate change on temperature and rainfall in any specific location, policies will need to be flexible and adaptable, so as not to overcommit to any one solution.
■ For successful agricultural adaptation to climate change, researchers will need to work together with farmers to develop new crop varieties and livestock breeds – along with supporting agronomic and husbandry methods, extension services and mechanisms for scaling up and out.
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