Page 184 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 7
Yield changes (%) for various crops in Southern Africa as a result of climate change, 2000-2050
Water
Crop
CNRM
CSIRO
ECHAM
MIROC
Rainfed Groundnuts 1.7
Irrigated Maize -5.6
Rainfed Maize -1.6
Rainfed Rice -0.6
Rainfed Sorghum -5.8
Rainfed Soybeans -15.4
Irrigated Wheat -5.1
Rainfed Wheat 18.5
Source: Authors
3.3 -5.7 2.1
-3.1 -2.8 -4.0
-2.8 -12.9 -4.0
0.1 -0.4 -1.6
-4.6 -10.4 -4.8
-12.8 -24.7 -7.3
-5.1 -7.1 -3.8
18.3 11.0 -6.1
table 8
Yield changes (%) for various crops in West Africa as a result of climate change, 2000-2050
Water
Crop
CNRM
CSIRO
ECHAM
MIROC
Rainfed Groundnuts -5.8
Rainfed Maize -2.3
Irrigated Rice -19.9
Rainfed Rice 4.4
Rainfed Sorghum -15.9
Rainfed Soybeans -1.5
Irrigated Wheat -37.8
Source: Authors
-7.7 -9.2 0.3
-8.1 -6.0 -4.9
-12.4 -20.0 -18.2
0.5 0.9 1.0
-9.5 -14.8 -13.0
-8.4 -1.6 -14.2
-10.9 -28.5 -14.3
World price changes (%), 2000-2050
table 9
Crop
MIROC A1B
MIROC B1
CSIRO A1B
CSIRO B1
No climate change
Rice 83 87
85 82 54
99 93 66
156 145 103
156 120 60
64 42 18
108 103 77
110 104 82
14 13 8
37 33 13
Wheat
Maize
Sweet potatoes & yams
Cassava
Sugar cane
Sorghum
Millet
121 106
209 165
141 96
78 50
125 113
115 104
8 8
Groundnuts 35 33
Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010)
Note: The price changes are from the baseline economic-demographic scenario
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