Page 192 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 12
Change (%) in productivity, West Africa, 2010-2050, IMPACT model
Crop
No Climate Change
CSIRO A1B
MIROC A1B
CSIRO B1
MIROC B1
Cassava 49.5 35.5
Cotton 90.9 71.4
Groundnuts 42.0 35.4
Maize 57.4 53.0
Millet 147.2 151.9
Rice 89.3 87.5
Sorghum 94.1 95.5
Soybeans 81.5 80.0
Sweet potatoes 73.5 48.1 and yams
Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010) Note: Values are for the baseline economic-demographic scenario
table 13
Number and percent of malnourished children under five in Africa, 2010 and 2050, IMPACT model
37.2 55.5 62.5
76.5 89.1 85.2
43.9 41.1 47.3
59.8 55.9 58.7
176.2 147.5 156.2
89.1 89.1 89.7
106.3 95.2 99.4
77.7 84.6 78.5
49.1 72.3 84.0
Region
Scenario
2010
2050
No climate change
Average of max and min of 4 GCM –SRES scenarios
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
East Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
Baseline
Optimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
20 991
20 975
4 894
5 024
15 157
14 733
34.3
34.3
24.6
25.3
31.0
30.2
18 931
13 968
3 570
1 671
12 415
7 615
24.2 21 077 27.0
20.4 15 858 23.2
15.2 4 288 18.2
8.2 2 264 11.2
20.9 13 913 23.4
15.1 8 949 17.1
Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010)
in 2050 still appear to be high in the baseline economic-demographic scenario, and even for the optimistic scenario in East Africa.
5. Conclusions
This paper summarizes key results at a regional level from three recently published monographs
on impacts of climate change on agriculture.
The results show great geographical variation in climate change effects on agriculture, and indicate that, while most direct climate change impacts
will be negative, there will be positive impacts
on yields in some areas with projected increases in precipitation, and in some elevated areas
that will be able to be cultivated due to warmer temperatures.
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