Page 231 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 7
Grain production trends in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the context of climate change and international trade
Elena Lioubimtseva1, Nicolai Dronin2 and Andrei Kirilenko3
main chapter messages
■ Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan (RUK) together are very likely to surpass the European Union and the United States within the next few years in total grain exports. However, official government goals of boosting grain and meat production by 2020s are unlikely to be fully reached by the three countries.
■ High grain exports from RUK have been primarily driven by reduced domestic demand than by increased productivity. The latter remains below the historical trend and is still much lower than officially projected. Future use of abandoned arable lands for cropping remains uncertain and unlikely, given that abandoned lands in 1990’s are marginal with very low potential productivity.
■ Climate change scenarios suggest that the grain production potential in RUK may increase due to a combination of winter temperature increase, extension of the growing season, and yield- enhancing CO2 fertilization; however the most productive semi-arid zone could suffer a dramatic increase in drought frequency.
■ Uncertainty about future grain production outlook in RUK region in relation to climate change require more refined modelling on crop yield impacts, land-use and land cover trends and their future impacts on GHG emissions. Also critical are future socio-economic changes including development pathways of infrastructure, financial systems, land market development and alignments between WTO requirements and agricultural subsidies.
1 Geography and Planning Department, Grand Valley State University, Michigan, USA 2 School of Geography, Moscow State University, the Russian Federation
3 Department of Earth System Science and Policy, University of North Dakota, USA
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