Page 245 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 7: grain rain production trends in russia, ukraine and kazakhstan in the context of climate change and international trade
table 6
Change of climate parameters for four IPCC SRES scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s, in comparison with the late USSR period (1980s). An ensemble mean for four GCMs (CGCM2, CSIROmk2, ECHam4, and DOE PCM) is shown
TIME
Country
Scenario
T ann.
P ann.
T warm
P warm
PET
GDD10
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
2020s
A1 1.6 4.7
A2 1.7 5.0
B1 1.7 4.8
B2 1.9 5.6
A1 1.5 3.0
A2 1.6 3.4
B1 1.5 3.5
B2 1.8 4.2
A1 1.3 1.0
A2 1.3 0.3
B1 1.3 2.3
B2 1.6 1.8
A1 3.9 11.1
A2 3.5 10.4
B1 2.7 8.0
B2 3.2 9.4
A1 3.5 7.1
A2 3.2 7.0
B1 2.5 5.8
B2 3.0 7.1
A1 3.1 2.4
A2 2.7 0.6
B1 2.2 3.7
B2 2.6 3.0
1.8 2.2
1.8 1.0
1.8 1.3
1.9 0.6
1.5 0.6
1.5 0.3
1.6 0.6
1.7 0.7
1.3 -1.3
1.3 -1.6
1.4 -0.1
1.5 -0.7
4.2 5.4
3.6 2.2
2.9 2.3
3.3 1.1
3.6 1.5
3.1 0.7
2.6 1.0
2.9 1.2
3.1 -3.0
2.7 -3.3
2.2 -0.2
2.6 -1.3
17 244
15 244
16 250
17 277
17 218
16 215
18 225
18 247
17 236
15 237
16 238
17 271
42 617
33 528
28 424
31 484
45 549
34 462
31 383
32 434
42 584
33 501
28 403
30 468
2050s
Note: The climate parameters are as follows: change in annual temperature (˚C) [T ann.], precipitation (percentage) [P ann.], change in warm period (April through September) temperature [T warm] and precipitation [P warm], change in annual potential evapotranspiration (percentage) [PET], and and change in ETS base 10 ˚C (˚C) [GDD10
a considerably smaller warm period increase in
the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan and even some decrease in Ukraine. The ETS is projected to grow by approximately 250 ˚C, roughly following these observations.
Food security studies frequently employ Dynamic Global Vegetation models (DGVMs) and crop simulation models driven by climate change projections, combined with economic
models (Pegov, 2000; Golubev and Dronin, 2004; Fischer et al., 2005; Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007; Alcamo et al., 2007; Dronin and Kirilenko, 2008; 2013). A DGVM is a computer programme that simulates shifts in potential vegetation and the associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles as a response to shifts in climate. Such models use time series of climate data and,
given constraints of latitude, topography and
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