Page 250 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 8
Summary of published wheat production trends and outlooks
Cereal production, million tonnes, selected years
Outlooks for cereal production, million tonnes
1998
2002
2005
2008
2010
2012
IKAR for 2016
IKAR for 2019
USDA for 2021
EBRD maximum potential scenario
Road Map 2020
Russia 46 84 77
Ukraine 25 46 37
Kazakhstan 6 16 14
Total 77 146 128
106 59
53 39
15 12
174 110
69 98 125 100 126 295.6
46 44 Na 59 75 na
15 22 Na na 29 na
130 164 230 na
estimated the maximum potential grain production in the Russian Federation at 126 million tonnes (EBRD-FAO, 2008). These estimates are based on the assumption that since the agroclimatic conditions in the Russian Federation are similar
to those in Canada, the Russian Federation can increase its average yields from 1.86 t/ha (2008- 2012) to the current level of yields in Canada
(3.54 t/ha). Similarly, the Russian Institute for the Agrarian Market Studies has projected that in 2019, grain production in the Russian Federation will reach 125 million tonnes and grain export will be about 45-50 million tonnes (Schierhorn, et al., 2012). According to a projection by the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Agriculture, by 2020, grain production could reach 120-130 million tonnes, which would allow export of 30 to 40 million tonnes of grain (Schierhorn et al., 2012). Perhaps the least convincing among these outlooks is the “Road Map of Agricultural Development in the Russian Federation by 2020” published by Babkin (2013), which projects a 214 percent increase in grain production from 2011 to 2020, up to 295.6 million tonnes, which would require a 13.5 percent annual growth in grain production.
We have developed more realistic growth projections, taking into account changes in management practices and technology, as well as the changes of climate in the main agricultural regions of the Central Eurasian grain belt.
One simple, albeit frequently used, approach to estimating future yields employs a linear
(2) increased food security based on reliance on internal meat and dairy production. In the view of the authors, the numerical targets set under this program5 are overly optimistic based on unrealistic productivity gains assumptions (2.5 percent annual growth rate for grains). In 2008, despite record high prices for grain on the world market (up by USD 400-450/tonne), the area under cereals increased by only 5 percent in the Russian Federation. During the Soviet period, much marginal land had been ploughed but it was then abandoned in the 1990s and its cultivation is still unprofitable regardless
of high prices for grain (Liefert et al., 2009a). The national report summarizing realization of the prior Federal Program as of 2011 shows that the area under cereals decreased slightly in the Russian Federation in 2008-2011 (O hode y resultatah ... 2012).
In fact, the high growth rates are based on expert estimates of potential yields, which are projected to exceed the current yields by hundreds of percentage points. For example, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
5 Average annual grain production under the Program is set to increase to 115 million tonnes, with overall export potential estimated at 30 million tonnes. Meat and poultry production to go up to 14.07 million tonnes in live weight, and milk production up to
38.2 million tonnes which translates into increased consumption from 69.1 to 73.2 kg/per capita for dairy and from 247 to 259 kg/per capita for meat, and an increase in exports of pork and poultry, up to 200 000 and 400 000 tonnes, respectively.
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