Page 257 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 7: grain rain production trends in russia, ukraine and kazakhstan in the context of climate change and international trade
the most productive semi-arid zone could suffer
a dramatic increase in drought frequency. In view of these projections, further research is needed
to evaluate vulnerability of grain production to future climate change and to determine suitable adaptation measures. If projected climatic changes are slow enough that adaptations to
the new climatic conditions can go along with
the normal cycle of equipment replacement, the costs of adaptations might be relatively low. These responses include selection of new cultivars, introduction of new crops, early planting, changes in crop mixture and crop rotation, change in land and water management practices, new pest
and disease control techniques, etc. However, if climate change is accelerated, as projected by GCMs for this century, reactive adaptations may carry much higher costs and planned adaptations may be required (Dronin and Kirilenko, 2011).
The following sources of uncertainty need to be further examined in order to produce more reliable grain production outlooks:
• Level of uncertainty associated with climate change scenarios.
• Lack of regional data on CO2 fertilization effect on crops and their water-use efficiency.
• Errors associated with land statistics and uncertainties associated with land cover trends derived from satellite imagery.
• Impacts of proposed recultivation of previously abandoned marginal lands on future greenhouse gas emissions, considering that recultivation would decrease current levels of carbon sequestration.
• Uncertainties associated with future political, social and economic changes in the RUK countries and their future agricultural policies.
• Uncertainties about the future development pathways of infrastructure, financial systems, land market development and future alignment between WTO requirements and agricultural subsidies.
Development of effective and sustainable food-production strategies in the Russian
Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan requires further basic, applied and translational research in several areas:
• More accurate modelling of climate change and its impacts on water resources and agro- ecological systems at the regional scale.
• FACE and laboratory experiments to improve understanding of CO2 fertilization on agricultural crops.
• Modelling of probability and frequency of extreme events, such as droughts, heat waves, wildfires, frosts and floods;
• Modelling human vulnerability and adaptations to climate change.
• Research on how adaptation measures can be incorporated into ongoing activities such as land-use planning, water resource management, drought and heat wave early warning and diversification of agriculture.
Our analysis shows that the ambitious goals of boosting grain and meat production by the 2020s, recently articulated by the governments of the three countries, are unlikely to be accomplished. However, the overall outlook is optimistic. The conservative “business as usual” scenario and the model GCM-based projections all indicate that the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will be able to increase their meat production while maintaining grain production surplus similar to the current level.
References
Adams, R., B. Hurd, S. Lenhart, & N. Leary, 1998. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate Research 11: 19 30.
Alcamo, J., N. Dronin, M. Endejan, G. Golubev & A. Kirilenko. 2007. A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environmental Change 1 (3 4): 429–444.
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