Page 267 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 8
The potential impact of climate change-induced sea level rise on the global rice market and food security in Asia
Ching-Cheng Chang1, Huey-Lin Lee2, Shih-Hsun Hsu3
main chapter messages
■ Climate change affects food security in Asia not only through supply shortfalls of rice from extreme temperatures, frequent flooding or droughts, but also through sea-level-rise induced cross-border impact from land endowment losses in the low-lying zones.
■ Global simulation results suggest that Viet Nam is likely to be hardest hit in terms of the agricultural extent loss to sea level rise, as most of its paddy rice is cultivated in the Mekong Delta flood zone. Thai-grown rice would only be able to partially supplement the potential shortfall.
■ Model results also reveal two spillover effects on the global staple market. First, the wheat
sector in Asia would be adversely affected due to land competition arising from local demand to secure the rice crop. Second, wheat- and coarse grain-growing regions outside Asia would reap some benefit from improved trade opportunities.
■ Although rice is relatively less traded across borders, loss of agricultural land to sea level rise would widen the gap between rice supply and demand of the rice-consuming countries. This suggests a need to establish safety nets of food security in Asia that can address the heightened impact of future climate change.
1 Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
2 Department of Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan
3 Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
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