Page 278 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 7
Key statistics of global rice trade in GTAP database
Ranking
1st
Share (%)
2nd
Share (%)
3rd
Share (%)
Processed rice (pcr)
Exports
Output
Paddy rice (pdr)
Exports
Output
Wheat (wht)
Exports
Output
Other grains (gro)
Exports
Output
13 Thailand:
9 South Asia:
16 NorthAmerica:
9 SouthAsia:
16 NorthAmerica:
23 EU27:
16 NorthAmerica:
16 NorthAmerica:
32.2
27.6
35.0
20.5
43.1
22.1
44.5
20.8
9 SouthAsia:
2 China:
23 EU27:
2 China:
23 EU27:
9 SouthAsia:
23 EU27:
23 EU27:
22.4 14 VietNam: 11.7
20.2 3 Japan: 18.3
14.0 9 SouthAsia: 12.6
19.6 3 Japan: 19.2
23.0 1 ANZ_Oceania: 12.7
21.9 16 NorthAmerica: 11.5
23.2 18 Argentina: 7.8
19.7 25 Russia_FSU: 7.7
able to contend with the rising land rent offered
by the rice sector and thus the land would be transferred to rice cultivation. Among such sectors, the vegetables & fruits and oilseeds sectors would be the most constricted, losing 6.84 percent and 8.36 percent of their land supply, respectively (Table 6). This also demonstrates the far-reaching influence of SLR-inflicted regional land loss in today’s highly globalized world.
Due to the input-output relationship, the processed rice sector of Viet Nam faces the same fate as the rice sector: output would shrink and prices would rise, prompting domestic consumers to move away from rice. Moreover, Viet Nam ranks third among the world exporters of processed
rice (see Table 7), and as much as 65 percent
of Vietnamese processed rice is exported. The countries that import Vietnamese rice would be worse off due to the price rise of Vietnamese
rice. Table 8 lists the top three import sources of processed rice in various importing countries.
Most of the countries rank Viet Nam and Thailand as their top importing sources of processed rice—which accounts for 64.7
percent of Vietnamese processed rice output
and 49.2 percent of Thailand’s. Thailand’s land loss (0.15 percent) is not projected to be as serious as Viet Nam’s (6.50 percent). Thai rice has been competing with Vietnamese rice in various Asian destinations – e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia,
the Philippines and Singapore. In response to a shortfall of exported Vietnamese rice, Thai rice would supplement to meet the demand of these importing countries, which would also experience their own land loss because of SLR. Table 4 shows prices of Vietnamese rice rising 5.74 percent for paddy and 3.33 percent for processed rice under the impact of SLR, while Thai rice prices rise by only 0.64 percent and 0.51 percent for paddy and processed rice, respectively. This explains the slight increase in the output of Thai processed rice and paddy rice, given that Thailand itself would have lost 0.22 percent of its agricultural land to SLR.
According to the benchmark data of our model, the GTAP database, the Caribbean/Central America, the Near East, North Africa, Malaysia/ Singapore, and the Philippines are the top five importing regions for Vietnamese processed
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