Page 281 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 8: the potential impact of climate change-induced sea level riseon the global rice market and food security in asia
regions, such as Argentina, Australia/New Zealand, the European Union, North America, and Russia would thus reap the benefit of improved terms of trade because of the effect of SLR on the Asian rice-growing regions.
Although rice is relatively less traded across borders, loss of agricultural land to SLR, especially in lower-latitude Asian developing countries,
would widen the gap between rice supply and demand of the rice-consuming countries. This suggests an urgent need to establish safety nets of food security in Asia. Particularly for agriculture of developing countries, sufficient efforts are also needed, in addition to poverty elimination, to brace for and adapt to climate change, so as to ensure their productivity and capacity of food supply.
The study represents the first attempt to analyze the sea level rise using a global CGE model that examines the relative impacts on several countries and combine supply, demand and
trade effects. However, a fuller account of climate change impacts would require simulating the effects of projected temperature and precipitation changes along with the sea level rise. This, and refined assumptions about the scope for sea level rise at various projected future periods require additional research.
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