Page 285 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 9
An assessment of global banana production and suitability under climate change scenarios
German Calberto1, Charles Staver2, Pablo Siles3
main chapter messages
■ Even with temperature increases of 3 °C by 2070, conditions globally will continue to be highly favorable for banana production. Increasing annual temperatures will make conditions more favorable for banana production in the subtropics and in tropical highlands. Through 2070 land area suitable for bananas will increase by 50%.
■ Production cycles from planting to harvest will be shorter due to an accelerated rate of leaf emission, but water demand will increase by 12-15%. Selected banana areas expected to surpass seasonal temperatures above 30 °C may be lost for banana production by 2050.
■ Specific cultivar groups such as East African highland bananas merit special studies. Their special suitability to tropical highland conditions
indicates that their cultivation area may expand to higher elevations. However, growers in lower elevation areas may need to substitute other cultivars as temperatures increase.
■ Even though increasing temperatures are not unfavorable for banana, they may be unfavorable for perennial and annual crops with which bananas are often grown. Farm households growing crops such as coffee, with banana as a secondary crop, may abandon banana when they abandon coffee because of climate change.
■ Additional analyses are needed to quantify the effects of extreme weather events and the implications for banana productivity and management. More analyses are also required to better understand the impacts on pest and disease dynamics for banana and tropical crops.
1 Bioversity International, Cali, Colombia - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
2 Bioversity International, Montpellier, France - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
3 CIAT, Managua, Nicaragua (previously Bioversity International, Turrialba, Costa Rica)
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