Page 293 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 9: an assessment of global banana production and suitability under climate change scenarios
and the Caribbean, where rainfall is projected to decline by 2050 and 2070.
Five of the 24 sites will shift agroclimatic categories due to temperature change over
the period from the present to 2070: Kawanda, Uganda; Butembo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); Mzuzu, Malawi; Salta, Argentina; and Armenia, Colombia (Table 6). These sites
will shift from an 18-24 °C temperature range to
a >24 °C temperature range. Three sites will shift the climatic zone to which they are mapped due to rainfall changes: Rivas, which will become drier; Kawanda, which is projected to become wetter; and La Vega. In La Vega several months hover right around the limit of 60mm/month, which is considered the difference between a dry month and a wet month and thus changes the length of the dry season based on rainfall.
In summary, based on this analysis of 24 sites:
• All sites demonstrate the linear increase in temperatures – average as well as minimum and maximum temperatures – which has made climate change a concern for humankind.
• Only three sites show trends towards extremely high temperatures – two in India and one in Argentina – which may limit banana growth.
table 6
Shift in agroclimatic zone for sites showing change in category with climate change (other sites unchanged)
highland area (1300 metres above sea level), although subtropical in location. For the
China site, winter temperatures are limiting
for banana growth, although according to climate change projections, the winter cold will be moderated. Temperatures in the other sites – even by 2070 – range between 15 and 30 °C, well within the acceptable parameters for banana growth. Several sites will shift to the agroclimatic zone which has temperatures >24 °C. Rainfall distribution varies from site to site. Sites such as Kawanda, North Kivu and Armenia have no dry months, while the other sites have seasonal dry periods. The monthly rainfall distribution is not projected to change over the period studied.
For the remaining two blocks of sites, wet/ dry tropics (Figure 5) and wet tropics (Figure 6), average temperatures are projected to increase over the next 50 years by over 3 °C, from 25 °C to 28 °C, but remain largely within a favourable range of 25-30 °C. Maximum temperatures
will reach the danger zone for banana in the India site by 2070, although even for current production, occasional heat waves may cause damage to new banana plants and to emerging bunches. On average, rainfall is not highly variable, except for the sites in Central America
Region
Country
Town
Current
2030
2050
2070
Africa
Africa
Africa
Africa
Africa
America
America
America
America
Uganda
DRC
Nigeria
Malawi
DRC
Argentina
Colombia
Dominican Rep.
Nicaragua
Kawanda
Butembo
Akwa Ibom
Mzuzu
Kisangani
Salta
Armenia
La Vega
Rivas
222 222 322 332
312 322 322 322
432 432 432 432
321 331 331 331
332 332 332 332
121 121 131 131
322 322 322 332
222 221 221 221
331 231 231 231
273