Page 81 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 3
Economic modelling of climate impacts and adaptation in agriculture: A survey of methods, results and gaps
Aziz Elbehri1 and Mary Burfisher2
main chapter messages
■ Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate impact report mostly negative and some positive outcomes of climate change on agriculture; but suggest substantial capacity to offset negative climate change through adaptive supply-and-demand responses, productivity-enhancing investments and trade.
■ Uncertainty about future climate outcomes requires an integrated modelling framework that combines a variety of biophysical processes with economic scenarios using a range of models structures and socio- economic pathways closely coordinated through research networks.
■ Improving policy-relevant economic analysis of climate impacts and adaptation requires
better integration of biophysical processes with socio-economic analyses and stronger use of inter-disciplinary approaches.
■ Economic models need to improve the ability to analyse extreme events and to systematically quantify uncertainties and frame economic conclusions in the context of known model limitations.
■ As adaptation decisions are inherently local, economic models at the farm/household level require better integration with biophysical and spatial techniques, improve accounting of climate risk and expand food security analysis beyond availability and include access and stability.
1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
2 United States Naval Academy and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Purdue University
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