Page 111 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 4: assessment of climate change impact on banana production and suitability in ecuador, and general assessment of global banana trends under climate change scenarios
Figure 32 Significant declines in annual banana exports for Ecuador from 1961-2011
6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
Banana exports
13% 32%
10%
14%
3%
4%
28%
Source: FAO statistics
Later, in 1973 and 1976, banana exports fell by 3 percent and 32 percent, respectively, caused by high levels of BS that resulted in the abandonment of plantations in 1973 and 1976 due to difficulties in the harvesting process. Both periods coincided with the occurrence of El Niño, the third such phenomenon
of its kind in the twentieth century, which came severe impact. Although specific reference of the impact of El Niño on the production or banana exports has not been found, it is known that this phenomenon caused floods and excessive humidity which, at the same time, resulted in the development of diseases caused by fungus, such as BS. This may have been, therefore, one of the factors that influenced the development of the diseases in both periods, reducing banana exports (Arteaga, 2000; Neira 2010; and Ministerio de Salud Pública, n.d.).
In 1982-1983, the El Niño occurrence was one of the most severe events to have affected Ecuador, surpassed only by is occurrence in 1997-1998. The effects lasted eleven months, causing permanent flood destruction of an estimated 10 000 hectares and severely damaging 27 000 hectares. During 1997-1998, exports declined by 28 percent (FAO, 1986).
In 1993, banana exports declined by 4 percent as a result of trade restrictions, imposed by the EU. This also reduced the international commodity price of the Ecuadorian banana (Muñoz, 2000). The El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 lasted 19 months. It was continuous, with long-term precipitation, resulting in
the worst damage in Ecuador’s recorded history. The agriculture sector was the most affected since, at the time, the bananas that had just been harvested did not reach their target markets due to damaged roads and bridges. The new plantations could not be farmed due to the saturation of humidity in the soil (CEPAL, 1998; Neira, 2010; WW2010, 2010; Ministerio de Salud Pública n.d.; Umpierrez, n.d.).
In 2010, banana exports were affected owing to the low temperatures experienced by Ecuador most of the year and to the weak demand from markets, such as Russia and the United States, during the first half of the year. In the case
95
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Million tonnes