Page 18 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
1. Introduction
Climate change is expeted to exacerbate the sustainability of most agricultural systems and threaten long-term agricultural productivity, food supply, and
future food security. Tackling the impacts of climate change and ensuring that agriculture is aligned with climate-compatible practices is of the utmost urgency. Concerted efforts at the farm, national, regional and global levels are necessary to deploy a variety of solutions, interventions and instruments to address the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Climate adaptation in agriculture should be viewed in broad terms and should proceed beyond the scope of current agricultural techniques. Adaptation to changing conditions is a dynamic process and should not be viewed as a temporary measure, nor should adaptation be reduced to new agricultural techniques. It must also cover institutional reform, policy and regulatory instruments, as well as harness market-based mechanisms.
Action on climate change in agriculture requires a multitude of measures; innovative approaches to adaptation and mitigation; and integrated policies
and strategies. A systems approach that can link climate change to sustainable agricultural development is essential for an effective transition to climate-smart agriculture, where adaptation and mitigation are integrated into sustainable agricultural intensification. An effective climate action must derive from evidence- based assessments to inform policy-making and to propose concrete and context-relevant options and interventions. Planning, assessments, and interventions are likely to come at various scales, ranging from the global to the farm level. Climate-smart agriculture policy formulation also requires a dynamic and greater degree of coordination by stakeholders and policy-makers alike.
2. Climate impact analysis for agriculture: The question of scale
Given the specific nature of agricultural systems, the selection of scale for analysis and climate action is a critical first step towards a decision which will depend on the targeted objective. Figure 1 shows the four key scales to consider for climate impact assessment and policy action.
At the global level, the focus of climate action is to evaluate the broad trends in agricultural productivity impacts, resource availability and future land use,
as well as the likely impacts of climate change and their relative magnitude. Assessments at this scale rely on global aggregate climate, crop and economic models that use data on climate, biophysical and socioeconomic trends. The
aim is to derive the relative magnitude of changes across regions and agricultural systems. Global models - such as the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis) and the Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison
and Improvement Project model suite - have been applied to estimate the magnitude of climate change impact on future productivity trends for major crops, animal systems, forestry and fisheries. These global assessments provide the evidence used within the global governance framework of the United Nations
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