Page 60 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
5.2.1 The aggravating impact of climate change
In Ecuador, climate change translates largely into rising temperatures, changes
in frequency and intensity of extreme events (droughts, floods), the retreat of glaciers, and the consequent changes to the hydrological regime. According
to Machovina (2013), the projected impact of climate change and variability on banana suitability remain broadly favourable through 2070. The same study reported that current land suitability for banana in Central and Latin America will have changed significantly by 2060, with the exception of Ecuador. Approximately 41 percent of land that is currently not suitable for the growing of banana will become suitable; 58 percent of currently suitable land will become less so; and 39 percent will experience no change. Relative to Ecuador, climate change assessments in other major banana-producing countries show that, broadly, Central America and the Philippines will be more adversely affected than Ecuador. New favourable areas for bananas will include southern Brazil (São Paulo to
Pôrto Alegre) and areas within the southern noncoastal region of China (within Guangdong).
For Ecuador, the projected scenario is favourable in terms of the overall suitability for banana, although it will be complicated due to the biotic effects
and impacts on diseases and the dynamics of pests. While more information is needed to link increased temperatures to pest dynamics and the length of their reproductive life cycle, preliminary indications suggest that banana pests, such as weevils and nematodes, may increase, become more aggressive and create more damage.
Climate change in the medium to long term will likely require adjustments
in certain banana production practices. The increased variability in weather
from one year to the next and the greater frequency of moderate and extreme weather events represent added challenges for scientists, growers, marketers and banana export companies. In general terms, higher temperatures are less favourable for BS, but higher rainfall and humidity are suitable for it. Higher rainfall will likely increase flood risks, while reduced glacial buffers, coupled with higher temperatures, will challenge existing water management systems, increase drought stress and may increase plant susceptibility to Panama disease.
5.3 Social sustainability
Banana fruit is a highly efficient value chain, with a significant market value of over USD 17 billion, globally, and more than USD 2 billion of value added for Ecuador. Nevertheless, the sector is notorious for unfair labour treatment and extremely low returns to workers. In addition to the environmental cost of pesticides, social inequity has plagued the sector since the beginning of the twentieth century. Banana production is labour-intensive, with labour costs accounting for 40 to
50 percent of total production costs; consequently, reducing the wage bill has long been one of the prime objectives for cost minimization by plantations owners (nationals and MNCs).
The issue is not new. Concerns for workers’ conditions and the environmental costs from pesticides have been widely advertised by NGOs (mostly European) since the 1990s. This has placed pressure on retailers to use their rising market
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