Page 73 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 3: climate change in ecuador and its impact on banana crops: an overview
favourability closely follows banana suitability. When climate change generates conditions less suitable to the production of bananas, these conditions are also less favourable for BS, and when banana suitability improves, the risk of BS increases.
4.1.3 Tropical cyclones and El Niño
For bananas, a weaker tropical cyclone might blow down or defoliate plants, resulting in the loss of income for that cycle, but it would leave the root system intact, allowing the next cycle to emerge. Stronger storms could potentially result in the permanent loss of capital with the destruction of root systems, structures, equipment, irrigation, drainage and transport infrastructure. The net impact of the forecast shift in tropical storm frequency and intensity, therefore, is to increase the long-term risk of tropical cyclone damage in many major banana producing areas, specifically in Central America, the Caribbean, the Philippines and mainland South-East Asia.25 The higher risk may reduce or alter the form of investment in banana production in these areas; it could also increase the relative attractiveness of banana production in areas with little or no risk of tropical cyclones, such the Pacific coast of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The South Atlantic has a very low incidence of tropical storms; this increases the attractiveness of Brazil for banana production. Similarly, Angola has -and is -forecast to maintain a suitable climate for bananas and has minimal tropical cyclone risk. Angola had a banana boom in the 1960s, but exports collapsed after the onset of the Angolan civil war (1975- 2002). Developing banana production in Angola, however, would require major investments in infrastructure.
4.2 Impacts within Ecuador
4.2.1 Temperature
Commercial banana production in Ecuador is concentrated along the Pacific coast and at low altitudes. The moderating influence of the lower ocean surface temperature is likely to moderate the temperature increase.
Figure 15 plots the monthly average daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for Guayaquil, Ecuador, which is a proxy for most commercial banana producing areas in Ecuador.26 The stability of the equatorial climate - its minimal seasonality - is evident in the graph: the temperature is relatively constant year round. This is favourable for banana production, which also occurs year round. Will the projected increase in average temperatures shift Ecuador out of this ideal climate zone? To answer this question, modellers construct a climatic suitability score for banana production locations, using critical temperature and
25 The risk of tropical cyclones is not explicitly included in the suitability measures calculated by Ramirez et al. (2011) and Van den Bergh et al. (2010); they focus appropriately on the two key determinants of suitability: temperature and rainfall.
26 Guayaquil has an altitude of 4 m. This is lower than most banana production areas in Ecuador and, thus, it slightly overstates the temperature. For a standard atmosphere, the temperature decreases by 0.65oC for each 100 m increase in altitude
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