Page 76 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
The probable incidence and severity of Panama disease has not yet
been analysed in conjunction with IPCC predictions. Gasparotto and Pereira (2008) argue that higher temperatures and drought stress may increase plant susceptibility to Panama disease. This is a different pattern from that of BS- favourability. In Ecuador, higher average temperatures point towards greater susceptibility, but this is partially offset by a lower risk of drought stress.
5. Summary
In sum, climate change between today and the middle of this century will unlikely present a major challenge to Ecuador’s capacity to produce bananas, although climate conditions will become gradually less favourable for banana production. In the second half of the century, however, higher average temperatures could begin to damage banana plants and force major changes in production. Higher rainfall and reduced glacial buffers may increase flood risk and challenge
existing water management systems. One possible adaptation would be to shift banana production to higher altitudes, but a 500 m increase in altitude would be needed to offset fully the mean IPCC-predicted increase of 3.3oC. A concern with the shifting of planting upslope is deforestation. From a climate change mitigation perspective, it will be important to reforest the former areas of banana production.33 Another potential adaptation is the development and adoption of varieties that grow in high temperatures.34
In Ecuador, the increased uncertainty about ENSO suggests that small insurance-premium-like actions against extreme ENSO events will have a higher payoff in the future than they have had in the past. The loss to the banana sector from an extreme ENSO event is most likely to be the result of a severe rainfall. The risk is compounded by the reduction of glacial and snowfield buffers. Combined, this argues the case for increased attention to flood, drainage and emergency systems for a wider range of adverse rainfall outcomes.
33 See Wunder (2001).
34 See Van den Bergh, Amorim and Johnson (2013) and Pillay, Ude and Kole (2012).
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