Page 80 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
1. Introduction
The pace and extent of climate change and its environmental and social implications have become an increasing concern to the scientific community and the public and private sectors. Numerous predictions have been issued about the effects on agriculture, which could extend from the local into the global economy. Sector-based and national planning and monitoring have been proposed to address the anticipated effects of climate change. The media has highlighted
the increasing incidence of pests and diseases and emergence of plant health problems in crops important to national economies. The global banana sector
is not isolated from these discussions. Of the three key challenges facing the banana industry identified during the 5th International Banana Congress, held
in Costa Rica on 24-27 February 2014 - (i) adaptation measures to minimize
the effects of climate change; (ii) increased environmental sustainability; and
(iii) meeting consumer demands on banana quality and labelling - two relate to climate change.
Climate change is projected to disrupt agricultural production, threatening food security and the incomes of millions of households in Latin America. Not only will average temperatures increase, but these will also generate more frequent and severe weather events, reducing crop yields and increasing incidence of pests and disease. Unless measures are taken to strengthen the resilience
of production systems, the agricultural yields and production will become increasingly variable over the medium and long terms.
The banana is the most important agricultural commodity in Ecuador. Ecuador is also the foremost exporting country of bananas and ranks as the fifth country in terms of total world production (6-7 percent). Bananas generate nearly 4 percent of gross national product (GNP); 50 percent of agricultural GNP and 20 percent of export earnings (AEBE, 2010). Banana production and its related industries
are the source of employment for more than 1 million families, approximately
17 percent of Ecuador’s population, who depend in one way or another on the banana industry. Clearly, the impact of weather events on Ecuador’s banana production will also have a direct impact on the country’s economy. The wellbeing and food security of those households that are linked directly or indirectly to the crop will also be affected.
In its efforts to develop the response capacity of key global commodities, FAO’s Trade and Markets Division has initiated a program of case studies and technical assistance. This particular study relates to Ecuador’s banana industry and addresses not only the nature of climate change and the need for adaptation, but also the potential for mitigation and the lowering of the carbon footprint. The results include the implications on banana production, yields and suitability.
i.
The study addresses the following:
A comprehension of the potential role of climate change and variability
on Ecuador’s banana production and the leaf diseases in primary banana growing areas, drawn from existing information that is based on the CGIAR’s research program, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS),
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