Page 100 - FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change

Appendix 01: Speakers’ summary notes
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Adaptation through integrated farming practices, landscape approaches, and agroforestry and their economic feasibility/viability for smallholders
ANDY JARVIS, TODD ROSENSTOCK, CHRISTINE LAMANNA, PETER LADERACH
PLENARY SESSION 8:
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INITIATIVES IN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE IN FOOD PRODUCTION AND LAND USE
Agriculture and climate function hand in hand; they also dysfunction hand in hand. Today, 32-39% of global crop yield variability is explained by climate, translating into annual production fluctuations of ~2 to ~22 million tonne,
for major crops such as maize, rice, wheat and soybean (Ray et al. 2015), whilst at the same time agriculture and livestock contribute 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (Vermeulen et al. 2012). By 2050, FAO state that we need to deliver 60% more food for a growing global population with shifting consumption patterns (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). And all this in a harsher climate - the IPCC, through a global meta-analysis (Porter et al.
2014; Challinor et al. 2014), reported that decreases of ~5% in crop productivity are expected for every 1oC warming above historical levels. These global drivers and trends represent a truly grand challenge that requires concerted action.
Numerous studies have shown that climate change can be a significant threat to food availability and stability by reducing agricultural productivity and increasing inter-annual variations in yields (Wheeler and von Braun 2013). A CSA approach is proposed as a solution to transform and reorient agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. CSA consists of co-achieving three objectives, or pillars, defined by the FAO (2013)
as 1) sustainably increasing agricultural productivity to support equitable increases in incomes, food security and development; 2) adapting and building resilience to climate change from the farm to national levels; and 3) reducing or removing GHG emissions where possible.1
Despite the significant global action and investment now being oriented towards CSA, the science is immature. There is scant evidence on the synergies and trade-offs among the distinct pillars of CSA of different practices and technologies across a range of agro-ecologies and social contexts.
Adaptation will be required if food production is to be increased in both quantity and stability in order to meet food security needs during the 21st century (Piontek et al. 2014). Research that informs action is needed to address the urgent climate risks to food systems and the global challenge of reducing GHG emissions from all sectors, including agriculture. Yet CSA science is in its infancy. Yield gains from adaptation through crop management and varietal substitution can play an important role, but are likely limited to moderate or low (< +3 oC) levels of warming (Porter
et al. 2014). Research should therefore address both incremental changes in production as well as transformative changes such as exiting from agricultural livelihoods (Rippke et al. 2016), changing diets (Tilman and Clark 2014), new trade regimes (Baldos and Hertel 2015), and the implementation of PES and carbon markets (Newell et al. 2014).
Complexity and uncertainty around CSA stand in the way of efficient and effective action. Complexity in CSA stems from the existence of diverse (1) interventions (ranging from field level management practices to national and regional policies), (2) site-specific farming systems and households (from pastoralists to market-oriented smallholders), (3) potential outcomes of success (from soil carbon to maternal dietary diversity) (Bryan et al. 2013;Wise et al.
2014; Rosenstock et al. 2016). Arslan et al. (2015) report that the positive impacts of inputs on maize yields in Zambia are conditioned by climatic conditions, whereas Below et al. (2012) report a marked dependency of farmer adaptation on socio-economic status. Uncertainty in CSA is the consequence of a lack of information and data about the risks farming families face, and the efficacy of any specific CSA intervention in a given location.
Whilst potential adaptation options may be myriad (e.g. Below et al. 2012; Bryan et al. 2013), understanding CSA in specific contexts and at scale requires changing the way we assess farming system responses under climate change, including the science outputs we produce. Areas where research can enable action include improving the mismatch
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) an approach to developing the technical, policy and investment conditions to achieve three main objectives: sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, adapting and building resilience to climate change, and reducing and/or removing greenhouse gases emissions, where possible.
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FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change, land use and food security