Page 15 - FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change

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Theme 2.
Human-directed drivers for land use, land use change, land degradation and desertification, and implications for food security
The current literature on the climate impacts of pollinators on the one hand, and crops and animal pests and diseases on the other, is based on case studies and needs to be addressed more comprehensively. We need more extensive data on these aspects to integrate them into impact models and build the evidence on crop yields and their effects on food supply.
Our understanding of the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of smaller food production systems remains limited and requires further data and quantitative research to examine, for instance, forage crops and mix systems. Particular attention should be paid to tropical and sub-tropical cropland, rangeland as well as inland fisheries, especially in Africa.
Integrating impacts on productivity and land use and changes in land use are key to addressing the overall impacts on food production, taking into account changes in crop suitability.
Two crucial dimensions of food security need special attention: utilisation and stability of food systems. In regards to food utilisation, there has been little focus on the impacts of climate change on the quality of food supply but there is a body of evidence suggesting a decline in protein and nutrient content of crops and dairy products as
a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In regards to food stability, agricultural shocks caused by extreme weather events are likely to play out through price variability and affect food supply variability. These issues remain an emerging field of study.
KNOWLEDGE GAPS
In addition to expanding research to small crops, the role of extremes is still a key knowledge gap. Change in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and the resulting food price volatility are likely to become much more detrimental than the gradual climate change effects that have received most attention in the literature up
to now, for very good reason. Climate model results and related crop model assessments are increasingly useful
for evaluating extremes. Analysing the impacts of climate change through risks, or “food shocks” and their transmission across various sectors and assessing how they interact with specific vulnerabilities, is necessary for food security impact assessment, in all dimensions, including stability.
Impacts on ecosystems (water, soils, forest and pollinators) indirectly influence food production and demand greater attention. We also need a comprehensive review of knowledge gaps in these areas. Furthermore, linkages with land use, food production and food security require further clarity and warrant more empirical research.
KEY MESSAGES
We need a better and more systematic delineation between climate-induced drivers and human-directed drivers of land use and land use change to avoid incorrect attribution and to draw up correct policy recommendations. The climate-induced and human-directed drivers and their linkages with food security need to be understood and evaluated, including where possible, measuring the relative magnitude of the two types of drivers (e.g. pollination loss and pesticides vs climate change).
To measure the effects of climate and human activities we need metrics and indicators that distinguish between direct and indirect, short-term vs long-term, and reversible vs non-reversible variables.
We need more comprehensive and holistic modelling of AFOLU (agriculture, forests, and other land use) to better understand competition for land between food, biomass, carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation; we also need to broaden models beyond a few individual demands to avoid suboptimal policy recommendations.
FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change, land use and food security