Page 62 - FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change

Appendix 01: Speakers’ summary notes
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Theme 1.
Climate impacts on land use, agriculture and related ecosystems
Climate impacts on crop yields, including extreme events, regional hot spots, crop suitability
ANDY CHALLINOR, UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS
WHAT WE KNOW
NEEDED NOW IF WE ARE TO ASSESS FOOD SECURITY
Yield and production
• Aggregated yield impacts known to be negative
• Production depends on land use, which is affected
by weather, climate, society, policy...
• Aggregate adaptation benefits known (~7-15 percentage points)
• An integrated understanding of land use and food production (WG 2,3)
• Associated scenarios to capture the range of possibilities, including further work on environment-diet-health and WEF nexuses
Extreme events
• Starting to be mapped out in more detail post-AR5. Needs to continue
• Unknown unknowns > known unknowns?
• Understanding “food shocks” including risk transmission across borders and sectors
• Integrated quantitative and qualitative approaches needed.
• Role for “plausible future” analysis with stakeholder (policy?) engagement
Where and when
• First-order impacts known reasonably well; timings less clear
• Interactions with vulnerabilities are critical
• When changes will happen under specific climate scenarios (WG 1,2)
• Which changes will ultimately be significant. Work with specific sectors, as in crop breeding example – again, role for policy and stakeholder engagement
PLENARY SESSION 1:
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON LAND USE, FOOD PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY (DIRECT IMPACTS)
Assessments of the impact of climate change on food security need to account for the diverse and complex interactions that ultimately deliver access to food. In particular, there are needs, some of which are beginning to be addressed, to:
• Be integrative, especially across traditional IPCC WGs. This can only be achieved by communication right from the outset, e.g. minimum one day author meeting to produce a framework approach.
• Capture the value of industry insight, including associated grey literature, on food shocks.
• Effectively combine quantitative and qualitative methods in order to asses risk.
• Produce global scenarios of food supply, demand and emissions that include land use and mitigation targets as
constrained interactions across sectors, Paris targets and land availability.
The table below summarises knowledge gaps. Further notes on each topic are provided overleaf.
Yields and production need further work, but the interactions with food systems are especially important.
Note that some crops (e.g. wheat) have been shown to have greater agreement in aggregate temperature response than others, e.g. maize. Whilst it is therefore clear that there is more work to be done, the broader production and land use issues are more important. This is especially true given that food-based emissions are projected to either be the totality or large fraction of 2oC emissions budgets. Changes in diet may be needed in order to achieve these targets.
Extreme events and food shocks also suggest a change in the way that assessments are carried out.
FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change, land use and food security