Page 45 - DHC Budget Book 2021-22 Final

Key Indicators
India Context
Despite the hard-hitting economic shock created by the global pandemic, India is witnessing a V-shaped recovery with a stable macroeconomic situation aided by a stable currency, comfortable current account, burgeoning forex reserves, and encouraging signs in the manufacturing sector output. India is reaping the “lockdown dividend” from the brave, preventive measures adopted at the onset of the pandemic. The policy maturity and the alacrity displayed to not “waste a crisis” has helped the country to save both‘lives’ and ‘livelihoods’ in
its own unique way and has shifted the focus away from the short-term pain created by the crisis to the potential for long-term gains engendered by the policy response.
While there was a 23.9 per cent contraction in GDP in Q1, the recovery has been a V-shaped one as seen in the 7.5 per cent decline in Q2 for FY
2020-21 and the recovery across all key economic indicators. This path would entail a growth in
real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2.4% over the absolute level of 2019-20 - implying that the economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level.
The survey expects the Indian economy to grow
by 11 per cent during 2021-22 which is close to
the growth forecast of 11.5 per cent made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 6.8 per cent in 2022-23. India is expected to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the next two years as per IMF. This means that the Indian GDP in 2021-22 is expected to be at H149.2 lakh Crs. Still, to achieve that level of real growth, retail inflation must moderate substantially to average 4.4% or less over the 12-month period through March 2022, given that the survey has projected nominal growth at 15.4% after the 7.7% pandemic-driven contraction in 2020-21.
Indian Economic Survey 2020-21: A Snapshot
Inflation
CPI combined
Current Account Balane
% of GDP
-1.8 -2.1
Foreign Exchange Reserves
GDP Growth
A constant prices, in per cent
Fiscal Deficit
11.0 17-18 18-19 19-20 -7.7 21-22
*Provisional Estimates (PE).
**1st Advance Estimates (AE). #Projected
3.5 3.4
3.5
7.0
6.1
4.2
20-21
% of GDP
4.6
17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21
*Provisional Actuals **BE
424.4 411.9
475.6
586.1
Content
Economic Survey 2020-21 Basic 43
Average, in %
3.1
In US $billion, year end
3.6 3.0
WPI -0.1 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 *Apr-Dec 2020
-0.9
Agricultue, Forestry & Fishing
Industrial Growth
Services
Growth rate of GVA at basic prices in %
5.9
2.4
Growth rate of GVA at basic prices in %
Growth rate of GVA at basic prices in %
7.7 5.5
18-19 19-20 20-21 *1st RE **PE *1st AE
17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 *Apr-Dec 2020
17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 *1st RE **PE *1st AE
4.0
3.4
-9.6
-8.8
6.6
17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 *Apr-Sep 2020
17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21
*Jan 8, 2021
6.3 4.9
0.9