Page 37 - MJC submissions

STEPS TOWARDS AN AGREED STATEMENT OF FACTS
And stipulations

7.5 Comments on Key Elements: Traffic Flows (Continued)
The traffic report provided by Bancroft Consultants for the adjacent development of Spinney
Hill (DM/17/2695) provides a more compliant example of how TRICS should be used to
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create an audit trail. It shows the dramatic variation possible in results simply because of a
users’ selection of databases:
Page | 27

Figure 13: Example of the audit trail in the TRICS system
The above report reveals a variation in the TRICS factor for peak hour arrivals from 0.100 to
0.429. These could produce traffic flow variations of up to 400%. There is no equivalent
audit trail in the current application. The report for Spinney Hill correctly uses the same
database for before and after flows, whereas those in the current application are entirely
different; further one data set is for an office block - based on square footage -and the other
for private flats, based on number.

Row E of Table F (and Appendix E2: page 36) shows the “calculation” of traffic flows made
by Bancroft Consulting for Spinney Hill. They are based on a morning peak outward flow
factor of 0.571 and an evening inward factor of 0.429. Applying these factors to the current
WH:EDF site would produce an outward flow for both morning and evening peak hours of
30 vehicles with a daily total (Vpd) of 497 compared to 4, 7 and 245 in the application

The conclusion is that claimed savings of 38% the transport report is a chimera
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In Ashurst Wood, between 58% and 70% of the population is employed. There is very little
local employment or public transport, so people drive to work. The average car ownership is
estimated at 1.6 per household with an average of over 2 residents per dwelling. Thus, for a
block of 71 flats in Ashurst Wood common sense suggests an outward morning traffic flow of
at least 35 vehicles and more likely 75: rather than the 17 or 30 calculated by TRICS (See
Figure 14 page 27).

37 Which is on the A22 and 300 metres away from Wealden House
38 Or 58% as recalculated on Table 8 as 51%