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rOpinion Survey:Despite Lingering Disenchantment,Carey Sweeps Toward RenominationBY ROBERT CRANE(WITH JON CINER, PETER HALEY AND RICHARD WALTON)On the crest of a million dollar facelift, Gov. Hugh Carey has overtaken the crumbling political fortunes of Lt. Gov. Mary Anne Krupsak in every major area of the state and appears certain to score a convincing victory Tuesday in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.Such a victory seemed unimaginable just three months ago, when statewide polls - including his own - showed Carey an underdog with the electorate and remarkable unpopular with the professional party politicians.But although disenchantment with the governor remains apparent at every level, political observers from the states%u2019s 15 key Democratic regions told this newspaper this week that Carey will win, perhaps by a large margin, despite his reputation for inaccessibility and lack of leadership.The same observers gave Buffalo Judge M. Dolores Denman little chance of knocking Bronx Borough President Robert Abrams out of the Democratic primary to succeed retiring state Attorney General Louis Lefkowitz.A third candidate for governor, Brooklyn State Sen. Jeremiah Bloom, is rated a distant third and there are indications that he may not even carry his own senatorial district in Flatbush.Carey%u2019s resurgence is fueled by a crushing financial advantage over Krupsak and Bloom. Reports on file with the state Board of Election show that as of last week, Carey had raised $1.5 million, or about 10 times more than either of his opponents.In its opinion sampling, this newspaper conducted scores of in depth interviews with elected officials, party officers and other political observers in regions containing 2,9 million of the state%u2019s estimated 3.8 million registered Democrats.The interviews clearly illustrate that in a campaign dominated by personality disputes and personal attacks, three statewide factors are behind the Carey surge:%u2022From mid-summer on, Krupsak was going broke. There was little or no money for television, special mailings or regular salaries. The campaign, said a Manhattan observer, %u201chas almost collapsed.%u201d As a result, Krupsak as appeared %u201c flakey.%u201d Said an Albany observer: %u201c A lot of people dislike Carey. But they think she%u2019s flakey, a day-by-day person, both in term s of schedule and outlook.%u201dhe gave the city an extra $50 million for subway improvements, and many of his upstate appearances are timed to cut ribbons, award grants or announce new projects.The most important keys to the primary, as shown by the interviews are these:BUFFALO: The nation%u2019s second largest Polish community, plus strong steelworkers unions, are the backbone ofKrupsak%u2019s upstate support. But the warring factions of Erie County Leader Joseph Crangle, Buffalo Mayor James Griffin and Assemblyman Arthur Eve, Buffalo%u2019s leading black politician,have buried the hatchet, temporarily, to work for Carey. %u201c The governor,%u201d Eve reasoned, %u201c is the governor, and he is going to be the governor.%u201dNASSAU COUNTY: Long Beach isUP FROM UNDER: No longer the underdog In Tuesday%u2019s gubernatorialprimary, Carey charged into the lead making hugely successful use of the toolof incumbency. Many appearances are timed to cut ribbons, award grants orannounce new projects. Last Tuesday, seven days before election, he coughedup $50 million extra for city subway improvements. [Michael Cuiccio Photo]%u2022Carey%u2019s saturation media blitz, staged by David Garth for the homestretch, appears to have cut deeply into Krupsak%u2019s support, defused Carey%u2019s veto of a death penalty bill as an issue, and reshaped Carey%u2019s image at a crucial time. %u201c For three years,%u201d said Bronx Democratic Chairman Stanley Friedm an, %u201c CareyMost of the energies, resources and strategies of a statewide Democratic campaign are focused on 15 regions containing 76 percent of theacted, responded and performed but didn%u2019t take any bows. Call it bad politics if you like. Now he%u2019s bowing.%u201d%u2022Upstate political bosses, furious over Carey%u2019s inattention to partisan affairs, nontheless now view him as the pragmatic winner. Said a Syracuse pol: \terrible politically. The patronage system is non-existent. The political organization is in shambles. But he is going to win. You don%u2019t indulge the luxury of sending a, a .%u00bb%u00ab%u00ab%u2022%u2022_ a a. _ _REGIONBrooklyn Queens Manhattan Erie County Nassau County BronxSuffolk County Westchester County Rochesterlet or*H uicaaagc iu a gujf juu uuu i iutc u m t gujis going to be governor.%u201dThe interviews showed also that Carey has been hugely successful in winning endorsements, like that last week of the state ALF-CIO, by swinging the tools of incumbency. Last Tuesday, for instance,AlbanyOnandaga County Binghamton Jamestown Ithacaregistered Democrats. Those regions, with 2.9 million of the estimated 3.8 million eligible voters for Tuesday%u2019s primary, are:DEMOS609,%u00a900500 %u00a900420.000260.000232.1231.1152,%u00ab150,003102,(72,fi59.00034.00029.00011.000critical to Krupsak. She was well received there by speaking out against the %u201c dumping%u201d of mental patients into the community. Krupsak forces report %u201c excellent response%u201d to phone interviews and predict a %u201c big surprise.\the backing of every local and state Democratic official in the county, with the county organization actively organizing a vote-pulling operation.NEW YORK CITY: Manhattan Leader Miriam Bockman foresees a %u201c sizeable%u201d Carey win, and everyone from Mayor Koch 6n down seems to agree. Fat cats are avoiding Krupsak in droves. John LoCicero, Koch%u2019s political operative, said Carey saved himself by down playing the death penalty veto, and by warming up to other politicians. Council President Bellamy backs Carey on %u201c merit,%u201d but says %u201c I%u2019m not sure how much impact merit has.%u201dSYRACUSE: H ere, as elsewhere upstate, Carey is disliked and distrusted, but is winning anyway. One reason is his insistence on tougher jail terms for juvenile hoods. %u201c Eighty-five percent of our suburban crimes are committed by juveniles,%u201d says Assemblyman Ronald Stott. %u201c We%u2019re not interested in the death penalty. We%u2019re interested in seeing the felons go to jail, whatever their age.%u201dTHE WOMEN%u2019S VOTE: Not as overwhelming for Krupsak as expected. Carey backed state-funded Medicaid abortions, actively supported the Equal Rights Amendment and named women to highlevel posts. Some feminists, like Betty Friedan, are for Carey. Others, like Syracuse legislator Elaine Lytel, are for Krupsak. %u201c It%u2019s not that Carey is a bad governor,%u201d she says. %u201c Mary Anne is better for us at this time.\ELSEWHERE UPSTATE: Carey%u2019s media blitz is puttin it all together for him in Rochester, and elsewhere, with economic wellbeing the big theme. Assemblyman Raleigh Kidder said Carey is %u201c coming on like gangbusters\Jamestown area. Krupsak supporters in Albany say. the outlook there is %u201c confusing.%u201dThere are also two major unknown factors in the campaign. One is the New York City newspaper strike, which has deprived candidates of a major sounding board. The other is the unpredictability of the voters%u2019 response to Krupsak as a woman. Last year, Manhattan lawyer Marie Lambert astonished pollsters and politicians alike by riding favorable sentiment into a 14-year judgeship.Upstate and city officials agree, however, that the campaign overall has failed to produce any measurable degree of excitement. Turnouts, therefore, could be as low as 25 percent in many major areas.Low turnouts upstate would be particularly damaging to Judge Denman, who has called for making the Attorney General%u2019s race a %u201creferrendum%u201d on the death penalty, which she favors in certain circumstances.Her stance, opposed by Abrams, has been sharply attacked in downstate regions. %u201c It just goes to show you,%u201d said the Bronx%u2019 Friedman, %u201c she doesn%u2019t know anything about that office. The Attorney General can%u2019t do any more about the death penalty than about peace in the Middie East.%u201dI V n m o n K A tt/A C * * A - i%u2014 --------- -----, | / k v r w u IU ISVaggressive, tough campaigner, a favorite of upstaters looking for geographic balalce to the otherwise downstate Democratic ticket, and a low turnout in the city could make the race uncomfortable close for Abrams.$ s p *n *%u00bb r7 . 1978, THE PHOENIX. Poo* 3