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RESOURCE CONTINGENCY 193

ture of most projects is that there is a high level of uncertainty. We must con-
sider schedule flexibility as a matter of course and be prepared to be flexible
with resources as well.

So can we apply contingency methods to resources? I think not in the way that
we use contingency for schedules and budgets. But here are a few things that we
can do.

• Improve effort estimates.
• Apply the PERT concept to effort estimates. That is, use three estimates:

optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. This will provide a range of effort,
which will illustrate the risk of exceeding the most likely figures.

Trap Unfortunately, no computer program yet exists
that considers three effort estimates and provides a sta-
tistical analysis of the values.

• Avoid deliberate overloads. Assume that resources will be available less than
every hour of the day (which is certainly realistic).

• Plan the immediate future in detail (for resource loading), but use long-
range schedules only to get an idea of the resource load factors (rather than
being concerned with which resource is working on which task six months
into the future).

• For long-range resource planning, concentrate on the class of resource
(skills) rather than specific people.

• Where the long-range projection indicates a potential overload situation,
make early (flexible) plans for bringing in additional resources. Identify op-
tions and sources.

• Where possible, identify alternative resources (skills) that can be used if the
preferred resource is in short supply.

In essence, contingency planning is a form of risk management. We identify
areas that might impact on our meeting of objectives and take actions to mitigate
any deleterious effect.

Tip Whether you need to allow some resource contingency
will depend in part on the density of the forecast resource us-
age. If the resource usage histogram for the accepted baseline
plan shows resource loadings at or above the planned re-
source availability, for most of the schedule periods, then