Page 19 - HW May-June 2020

stats watch
Statswatch Mar-Apr 2020
MARCH-APRIL 2020 numbers stack up OK but it’s less easy to predict positives further out...
• New risk data to end April suggest the real e ect of COVID-
19 has yet to kick in.
• evalueofallMarch2020consentsfellby15.5%buttotal
value YTD remains +5%.
NEW RETAILING, CONSTRUCTION RISK PROFILES
From this issue of NZ Hardware Journal, instead of our usual debt and DSO series, we’re going to be showing some interesting new data from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www.creditworks.co.nz), based on a new o ering it has made available to clients.
Using data from its CRISworks database, CreditWorks can assess with a high degree of accuracy the level of credit risk posed by a particular industry sector.
a lesser risk than Core Retailing which has a greater exposure to risk in the 20-40% bracket.
Similarly, Core Retailing has a greater risk than Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing in the 5-10% band.
How do these industry categories compare to others?
As there are 31 other categories available to view on CreditWorks’ website (www.creditworks.co.nz), comparisons between sectors can be made between any number of them.
However, comparing the retail sector graphs with the construction industry it’s clear that, Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing represents a better risk to deal with than the other three sectors shown here.
What is the expectation for these categories looking ahead?
Core retailing, which contains the Food & Beverage sector, appears to be most at risk with the the expectation being that we
Our new “debt risk market analysis” reports for the period February-April 2020 show how much of an industry sector presents the most likelihood of failure in the next 18 months.
In the top two graphs opposite, we’re comparing Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing (ANZSIC G423) to Core Retailing (ANZSIC G41, H45, G42).
“The majority of the Residential Construction sector presents a lower risk than Commercial, with a greater percentage in the lower risk bands”
In the second pair of charts we show risk in Residential Building Construction (ANZSIC E301) and in Non-Residential Building Construction (ANZSIC E302).
What can we derive from this data?
Risk movement over the last three months, hasn’t changed much, however we are yet to see the real e ect of COVID-19 in these statistics.
Having said this, there is a clear indication that Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing as an industry represents
will see this sector moving into the higher risk bands as COVID- 19 restrictions really start to bite.
Looking at construction, which still has a huge workload ahead of it, while immigration has stalled, there is still signi cant demand for housing in the major centres in particular, fuelled also by very low borrowing rates.
Based on existing data, Residential Construction represents a slightly higher risk in the 20%+ risk band, compared to Commercial Construction. However, overall, the majority of the Residential sector presents a lower risk than Commercial,
Steve Bohling
GROUP EDITOR
steveb@mpm.nz
ddi 09 304 2705 | mob 021 0223 6887
Susan Kennedy
ACCOUNT MANAGER
susank@mpm.nz
ddi 09 304 2706 | mob 021 317 176
Karen Condon
ACCOUNT MANAGER
karenc@mpm.nz
ddi 09 304 2707 | mob 0275 420 338
Phone 09 375 3097 Lower Ground Level, 83 Mt Eden RD, Gra on, Auckland 1023 PO Box 28372 Remuera, Auckland, 1541, NZ
Want to talk to us?
NOTE OUR PHONE & ADDRESS DETAILS
Nic McCord
EVENT MANAGER
awards@mpm.nz mob 021 828 142
MORE AT www.facebook.com/nzhardwarejournal
MAY/JUNE 2020 | NZHJ 17
MPM7762 0619