Page 17 - HW1021

stats watch
Statswatch August 2021
THE AUGUST STATS show continued records being set for residential consents with concerns about risk and debt also growing.
• Risk:lockdownputsthesqueezeonconstruction.
• MorerecordssetinAugustconsents.
LOCKDOWN IMPACTS AUGUST RISK DATA
Our regular data series from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www. creditworks.co.nz) assesses the level of credit risk posed by the four business sectors most closely associated with our chosen industry:
• Hardware,Building&GardenSuppliesRetailing • CoreRetailing
• ResidentialConstruction
• CommercialConstruction
In our last update, although July’s data didn’t strictly indicate it, our commentary suggested that the latest lockdown was likely to have “a significant impact on debt” in coming months.
Indeed, one month later, comments CreditWorks’ Alan Johnston: “The businesses which were previously in the ‘very low risk’ categories are now starting to show payment stress, and we are starting to see average DSO debt age out.”
Given that only a very small proportion of business previously offered a serious risk of failure, there is not much obvious movement in the higher risk band areas.
However negative movement is much more evident in the more populated 0.5-5.5% risk bands, particularly for the Residential Building and Core Retailing sectors.
Alan continues: “This is somewhat to be expected, given what we know of the retail market in general, and more specifically the building sector.
“Current inability to access goods confined within Auckland boundaries,agenerallackofavailablematerialsandwhiteware
supplies anywhere, price hikes, and an inability to trade or continue construction during Covid times (remember, for a fair share of August all of the country were under full Level 4 restrictions)allsomewhataddsuptoa‘PerfectStorm’.”
Intermsofanoutlook,saysAlanJohnston:“Idon’texpect September figures to show any better, in fact I think we will see further deterioration given the country’s biggest market – Auckland – was still in full lockdown throughout this period.
“While the retail sector may well bounce back over the next couple of months, we see the building industry continue to struggle from a debt and risk perspective, at least through to Christmasatthisstage.”
“Businesses previously in the ‘very
low risk’ categories are starting to show payment stress”
September’s risk data will be posted online first so look to www.harwdarejournal.co.nz for early notice of changing risk profiles.
AUGUST BUILDING CONSENTS
Building consents continue to set record levels, with YTD August 2021’s 46,453 new homes consented outdoing the previous high of 40,025 set in YTD March 2021.
Auckland’s new home volume was +34% percent in the latest year, within which multi-unit homes were +56% on the year ended August 2020,
Consents by value for the August month were as follows: • Residential:$1.9billion(+40.9%onAugust2020).
Steve Bohling
GROUP EDITOR
steveb@mpm.nz mob 021 0223 6887
Susan Kennedy
ACCOUNT MANAGER
susank@mpm.nz mob 021 317 176
Karen Condon
ACCOUNT MANAGER
karenc@mpm.nz mob 0275 420 338
Phone 09 375 3097 PO Box 28372 Remuera, Auckland 1541 New Zealand
Want to talk to us?
NOTE OUR PHONE & ADDRESS DETAILS
Nic McCord
EVENT MANAGER
awards@mpm.nz mob 021 828 142
MORE AT www.facebook.com/nzhardwarejournal
OCTOBER 2021 | NZHJ 15
MPM7762 0920